2021 PGA Tour Waste Management Phoenix Open Odds and Picks

• The Waste Management Phoenix Open from TPC Scottsdale in Arizona tees off Thursday, February 4th
• Jon Rahm is the slight +600 favorite over Justin Thomas and Xander Schauffele
• We’ve narrowed down the golfers with the best chance of emerging victorious and provided the best value bets below

With four of the top-ten players in the world competing at the Saudi International on the European Tour, many of the top players are competing stateside, with five of the top ten teeing it up at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, including betting favorite Jon Rahm.

Normally this event is the most raucous on Tour, with fans jam packed into the par-3 16th hole, but with COVID-19 protocols in place, it’ll be decidedly less crazy this year with approximately just 5,000 fans allowed at the tournament.

The last five years has seen super close calls at this event, with four of them going to a playoff – Rickie Fowler’s two shot triumph in 2019 was the lone exception.

2021 Waste Management Phoenix Open Odds

Odds taken February 1st from DraftKings

Defending Champion Webb Simpson Sporting Great Value

The top four names of Jon Rahm, Justin Thomas, Xander Schauffele and Rory McIlroy will dominate the headlines, and rightfully so, but that is perfect for defending champion Webb Simpson to go under the radar and rip up TPC Scottsdale as he’s done in the past. Sitting at +1400 to win outright, you’re getting great value on a player who loves this track.

🚨ACE ALERT🚨

Webb Simpson's first ace on Tour earned him a share of the lead at the Waste Management Phoenix Open 🙌pic.twitter.com/CT4FBBBJUF

— GOLF.com (@GOLF_com) February 1, 2020

Not only did he win in a playoff over Tony Finau last year, but he was also in another playoff in 2017, before eventually falling to Hideki Matsuyama (more on him later). Simpson has shown fine form at this venue other times in his career as well, posting three other top ten finishes.

Simpson gained 9.5 shots on the field at this tournament last year tee-to-green, and he’s gained shots on his competitors in twelve straight events in that category. While the other big names are very tantalizing, I’d rather take the extra juice on a player who’s proven he can get it done at the Waste Management Phoenix Open.

Last Five Waste Management Phoenix Open Winners

Waste Management Phoenix Open Best Value Picks

1. Hideki Matsuyama (+2200): Hideki Matsuyama has a spectacular track record around TPC Scottsdale, having won it back-to-back years in 2016 and 2017. He also was a runner-up in 2015 and was fourth in 2014. Solid in both 2019 and 2020 here with T-15 and T-16 finishes. Made the weekend in 13 of the last 14 times teeing it up, with T-2 and T-3 being his best results.
2. Bubba Watson (+5000): For a player who in the past has said he hates this track, you sure wouldn’t know it by Bubba’s track record. He’s posted five career top five finishes at the Phoenix Open, including a pair of runner-ups in 2014 and 2015. He was T-3 last year and T-4 the year before that, so a victory here feels inevitable. Has returned to form with T-4 and T-7 showings in his last four tournaments.
3. Max Homa (+10000): Deep dive with huge potential upside. The 2019 Wells Fargo Champion has been on the periphery of another title in his last three tournaments. He’s gone T-12, T-21, T-18 and he co-led after 54 holes at the American Express two weekends ago. Had a strong showing here in 2020 with a T-6 result.