2021 Hero World Challenge Odds and Picks

• Rory McIlroy and Collin Morikawa are the +750 co-favorites in the Hero World Challenge, an event from December 2-5 featuring 20 of world’s top golfers
• An event hosted by Tiger Woods, features a top-tier field of FedExCup champions, TOUR stars, and global notables
• See the odds and best bets for the event below

The Hero World Challenge is an apt name for this week’s gathering of elite PGA Tour stars. If you’ve got a golfing hero from anywhere in the world, chances are good that they’ll be teeing it up in this event.

This year’s 20-player field includes Past FedExCup champions Rory McIlroy (2016, 2019), Jordan Spieth (2015), Justin Thomas (2017), Justin Rose (2018) and Henrik Stenson (2013). World #2 Collin Morikawa, fresh off a victory at the DP World Tour Championship, is the highest-ranked player in the field.

The past three winners of The Players Championship (Thomas, McIlroy, Webb Simpson) and the past two Olympic gold medalists (Rose, Xander Schauffele) will also playing in this tournament.

Oddsmakers are establishing Morikawa and McIlroy as the +750 co-favorites. Neither player has ever won, or even finished as runner-up in the event.

2021 Hero World Challenge Odds

Odds as of November 29th at DraftKings

The Hero World Challenge gets underway Thursday, December 2 at the Albany Golf Course, a par-72, 7,309-yard layout in the Bahamas. The first two rounds of action will be broadcast by the Golf Channel. NBC is carrying the last two rounds of the tournament.

Hero World Challenge Betting Trends

In a small field of extremely talented golfers, it’s going to be tempting to go for a price in the Hero World Challenge. History shows that is, for the most part, a bad idea.

The last time this tournament was held in 2019 – it was called off last year due to COVID-19 – Sweden’s Henrik Stenson won. He paid out handsomely at odds of +3000. Looking at that, it’ll be tempting to jump all over a past Masters winner such as Patrick Reed at +3000.

With a 66 in the final round, Henrik Stenson wins the Hero World Challenge by one shot. 💯 pic.twitter.com/QN5DbNKxZ3

— Golf Digest (@GolfDigest) December 7, 2019

Don’t go there. Stenson – who is the longest shot in this year’s field at +6500 – is the exception, not the rule. Generally, players who win the Hero World Challenge enter the tournament near the top of the odds board.

Seek Out Golfers Trending Upward

It’s not a brilliant piece of handicapping to back a golfer who is playing well leading into a tournament. However, in the case of the Hero World Challenge, it is the soundest of betting strategies.

According to golfodds.com, Stenson ranked 14th in the betting line for the 2019 Hero World Challenge. Among the four prior winners, none was lower than seventh in the betting odds. Three of them were among the top four.

Solid week @HouOpenGolf! Two weeks off before Hero World Challenge in the Bahamas. Looking forward to being home and some time in the woods!

— Sam Burns (@Samburns66) November 15, 2021

Taking that into account, Justin Thomas looks to be a good investment in the Bahamas. He tied for fifth in this event in 2019. More recently, Thomas has finished third at Mayakoba and T18 at the CJ Cup.

Currently #2 in the FedEx Cup standings, Sam Burns is another who fits this mold. He won the Sanderson Farms Championship, was T5 at the CJ Cup and T7 at the Houston Open.

2021 Hero World Challenge Best Value Picks

1. Matt Fitzpatrick (+2500): Fitzpatrick was the last to gain entry into this event via sponsor exemption. He was T2 at the DP World Tour Championship. He won at Valderrama in October and was fourth in the Race to Dubai.
2. Justin Rose (+2500): Rose loves playing the Albany layout. In the last three Hero World Challenge events he’s finished third with a pair of T5s. As well, his game is looking sharper of late.
3. Viktor Hovland (+1100): The winner at Mayakoba, Hovland hasn’t played since. That was his fourth worldwide tournament win of the last 21 months. It’s his first time at Albany but Hovland’s reputation is that of a quick study.