2021 British Open Championship Best Sleepers & Longshot Picks
By Chris Amberley in Golf
Published:
- The 2021 British Open tees off Thursday, July 15th at Royal St. George’s Golf Club, in Sandwich, England
- Patrick Reed has finished inside the top-20 in seven straight Majors, and ranks third in this field in strokes gained short game over the past 50 rounds
- Read below for analysis of the event and our favorite sleepers and longshot plays
The 2021 British Open tees off on Thursday (July 15th), which means the best golfers in the world are gearing up for one of the toughest, and most unpredictable tests of the season. This year, Royal St. George’s plays host for the third time this century, and in the past has been one of the most challenging tracks in the British Open rotation.
Darren Clarke was crowned Champion Golfer of the Year here in 2011 with a final score of -5, while Ben Curtis captured his only Major at this track in 2003, and was the only player to finish below par (-1).
Historically, Royal St. George’s features some of the most difficult greens to hit in all of golf, so placing a premium on short game would be wise when selecting which golfers to bet this week.
Few players in the world are better on and around the green than Patrick Reed, and he’s the first target on our sleepers and longshots betting card.
2021 British Open Odds
| Golfer | Odds to Win | Top-10 Odds | Top-20 Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Reed | +3300 | +250 | +125 |
| Adam Scott | +11000 | +800 | +335 |
| Padraig Harrington | +17500 | +1100 | +450 |
| Matt Kuchar | +25000 | +1400 | +650 |
Odds as of July 12th at DraftKings and FanDuel.
Reed Relishes the Big Stage
It’s no secret that Reed plays his best golf at the world’s most difficult tracks. His victories include a Major at Augusta, two WGC’s, two FedEx Playoff events, and a Tournament of Champions trophy, plus a Farmers Insurance Open title at Torrey Pines. Not a bad little resume.
Patrick Reed’s 1 putt %
Take a moment. Let it sink in…then grab your putter & start practicing
@jayfeely @barstoolsports @TikiBarber @wallyball @SteveTasker89 @rondebarber @aaronmurray11 @shanebacon pic.twitter.com/WJSBu1ia2O
— Ned Michaels (@nedmichaels) July 9, 2021
He’s the owner of a world class short game, and is the only player in the field to rank inside the top-10 in both strokes gained around the green (8th) and putting (8th) over the past 50 rounds. That skillset should come in handy this week, as Royal St. Georges yielded a sub 56% greens in regulation percentage in both 2003 and 2011.
Three #TheOpen courses since 2003 have yielded a GIR percentage under 56% for the week.
Two of those weeks have been at Royal St George's (55.0% in 2011, 55.9% in 2003). Royal Birkdale in 2008 is the other.
— Justin Ray (@JustinRayGolf) July 12, 2021
Reed’s been excellent in Majors over the past two plus years, racking up seven straight top-20 results, and fits a couple of trends of past British Open winners. Seven of the past eight Champion Golfers of the Year have recorded at least one top-20 finish at one of the season’s prior Majors, and 14 of the past 15 had a top-10 result or better at a previous British Open. Reed finished 10th at Royal Portrush in 2019, and is a strong bet to be fighting for the title on Sunday.
Pick: Patrick Reed to Win (+3300)
Scott Shown No Respect
Depending on where you look, Adam Scott’s British Open odds are as short as +6600 or as long as +11000. He’s a steal at the latter price in the outright market, and also makes a great top-10 wager. Scott has five career top-10 results at this event, and has gained strokes on and around the greens in three straight starts.
Look at where @AdamScott had to aim this one.
That's some serious break.#QuickHits pic.twitter.com/0n2X3Vd8Ry
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) March 6, 2020
He’s seen a resurgence with the flat stick in particular, gaining at least 2 strokes on the greens in eight of his past nine measured events. Considering he’s already one of the world’s top ball strikers, this newfound confidence with the putter is bound to translate into a high end finish soon. He’s been knocking on the door with three top-16 results in his past six starts, and this is the week he sneaks back inside the top-10.
Pick: Adam Scott Top-10 Finish (+800)
Top-20 Value Picks
- Padraig Harrington (+450): Every year at the British Open, a golfer who appears to be past his prime emerges to contend for the title. Padraig Harrington could be that player in 2021, and as he showed with his fourth place finish at the PGA Championship, he still has game. The two-time champ finished T-18 last week at a stacked Scottish Open, shooting 68 or better in each of the first three rounds.
- Matt Kuchar (+650): The wiley American missed the cut at both the PGA Championship and U.S. Open, but those behemoth courses do not fit his game. He’s much better suited for a shorter track like this, that places a heavy emphasis on short game. Kuchar has gained strokes around the greens in four straight starts, and is one of the better putters on Tour year after year. He’s made the weekend in eight straight British Opens, racking up three straight top-16 results.
Sports Writer
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
