2020 US Open Picks and Odds

• The US Open is upon as it runs from Thursday September 17th-20th from Winged Foot Golf Club in New York on NBC and Golf Channel
• Heavy favorite Dustin Johnson begins the week atop the board with Jon Rahm, Rory McIlroy and Justin Thomas the top contenders
• We’ve narrowed down the golfers with the best chance of emerging victorious and provided the best value bets below

The year’s second major is upon us, and it promises to be a brute as the US Open heads to famed Winged Foot Golf Club. This course last hosted the national open way back in 2006, when Geoff Ogilvy outlasted the field for victory with a score of five-over par.

Dustin Johnson heads into this tournament fresh off a dominant stretch of golf, where he won twice and finished second twice in the last four events – taking home The Northern Trust and Tour Championship and also coming up just short at the PGA Championship and BMW Championship.

Unsurprisingly, he’s the betting favorite to win outright in the US Open odds, over the man who defeated him in a playoff at the BMW – Jon Rahm.

With Brooks Koepka withdrawing from the event due to injury, the field is wide open as it’s felt in years, as Koepka won’t be going for his third win in four starts.

2020 US Open Odds

Odds taken September 16th

DJ Primed for Second Career Major Win

If there was ever a time for Dustin Johnson to move off the criminally low one career major title mark, this would be the week. He’s never been hotter heading into a major – apart from when he’d won three straight times before the 2017 Masters – when an injury sidelined him.

DJ also won’t run into the US Open buzzsaw that is Brooks Koepka, who co-led with Johnson after 54 holes in the 2018 Open, a tournament Koepka prevailed in. DJ also got clipped by Koepka at the 2019 PGA, so one incredibly difficult golfer to beat won’t be in his way.

.@DJohnsonPGA continued his great play throughout the @FedEx Cup playoffs and he was obviously “richly” rewarded for it at East Lake in the @playofffinale! I thought he managed his game terrifically, and he stayed very calm throughout the entire tournament. pic.twitter.com/KXwzrsMoen

— Jack Nicklaus (@jacknicklaus) September 8, 2020

Of all the majors, this is the one that has produced the best finishes for Johnson (four times inside the top four) including a victory in 2016, and he’s coming into the event on a heater.

Winged Foot is a tight track with penal three to five inch rough, so ball striking will be at a premium. Johnson is ninth on tour in strokes gained: tee-to-green, and he’s gained strokes in that category in nine of his last eleven events.

Even though you’re not getting much value on him at +750, he’s been playing too well lately to ignore so many of his close calls at the majors, so now could be the time to have faith in him.

Last Five US Open Champions

Xander Schauffele Must Be on Your Radar

In the first three US Open appearances of his career, Xander Schauffele has been stellar, putting together T-3, T-5 and T-6 showings.

Had everyone started the Tour Championship at the same score two weeks ago, he would’ve been the 72 hole winner. He’s been his typical steady self coming into Winged Foot, having posted eight straight top-25 finishes.

Great day with the putter. T2 heading into the final round pic.twitter.com/wLR6soekbo

— Xander Schauffele (@XSchauffele) September 6, 2020

In 2020, Schauffele has gained strokes on the field in all but one of his 16 events. He’s a ball striking savant, ranking eighth off the tee and seventh tee-to-green, factors that will help him immeasurably.

Of the six main ‘strokes gained’ categories on tour, his worst stat is 37th (approaching the green and around the green), showing that he has the all-around game to perhaps win his first major title.

At +1400 odds, you’re getting pretty decent value for a player that’s always in the hunt at this championship who’s as consistent as they come.

US Open Best Value Picks

1. Webb Simpson (+2200): The 2012 US Open champ has won twice this season, and has been 12th or better in six of his last eight tournaments. Has only missed the cut once in nine career US Open’s. First in birdie average and scoring average on the campaign. Sixth in SG: approaching the green, eleventh in greens in regulation, 13th in putting and 18th in driving accuracy.
2. Daniel Berger (+3300): Enters the US Open with ten top-25 finishes in last eleven tournaments, including a victory at the Charles Schwab Challenge to go along with six other top-10 results. 54-hole co-leader at this event two years ago. Second in total strokes gained on tour since the restart. Solid all the way across the board in strokes gained categories.
3. Brendon Todd (+10000): Intriguing long shot, given that he won twice ten months ago and has been flirting with victories in big events since. Led after 54 holes at the WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational last month, then co-led the PGA Championship after day one in the last major before settling for a T-17th result. Six top-25 finishes in last nine events. Fourth in driving accuracy which will bode well at Winged Foot.