2020 Sanderson Farms Championship Sleepers and Longshot Picks

• The 2020-21 PGA Tour season continues Thursday (Oct. 1) at the Country Club of Jackson, in Jackson, Mississippi
•  Cameron Davis ranks fifth in birdie or better percentage over the last six months
• Read below for analysis of the event and our favorite sleepers and longshot plays

Hudson Swafford is the latest champion on the PGA Tour, winning as a 210-1 longshot last week at the Corales Puntacana Resort and Club Championship.

Back in the winner's circle. 💯

Hudson Swafford earns his first PGA Tour title since 2017 at the Corales Puntacana Resort & Club Championship at 18-under par. pic.twitter.com/vmlVo4YTwe

— Golf Digest (@GolfDigest) September 27, 2020

This week, the Tour heads to Jackson, Mississippi for the Sanderson Farms Championship starting on Thursday, and we’ll be looking to identify a Swafford-like sleeper who can cash a big ticket for us.

Much like in Punta Cana, the field in this event is short on star power, but at first look there appears to be plenty of value on the odds board.

Sanderson Farms Championship Odds

Odds taken Sept. 29th at DraftKings.

The winning score at the Sanderson Farms Championship over the last few years has ranged between 18 and 21 under par, meaning we’re going to need to target players who can excel in a birdie fest.

Davis’ Ball Striking On Point

This tournament has been a breeding ground for first time winners as each of the last six champions have captured their maiden PGA Tour victory here.

Cameron Davis shot 64 (-7) today @TheNTGolf and is tied for the lead. Coming off his best putting week in his PGA Tour career last week @WyndhamChamp, Cameron finished 6th in Strokes Gained Putting today @TPCBoston I’ve always liked his golf swing lets see if the putter stays hot pic.twitter.com/4paVfCSqwm

— Travis Fulton (@travisfulton) August 21, 2020

Cameron Davis is still looking for his first W, and the way he’s been striking it lately, he might not have to wait much longer. The Aussie has gained strokes ball striking in each of his last five starts, finishing inside the top-15 twice. He’s one the field’s top scorers, ranking fifth in birdie or better percentage over the last six months.

Cameron Davis Key Stats Ranking – Last 6 Months

Davis also ranks top-10 in the field in strokes gained putting, Par 5 scoring and Proximity between 100-125 yards. Players will be hitting a lot of wedges into these short Par 4’s and some of the longer Par 5’s and the ability to stuff it close and bury the putt will be key.

Another feather in his cap is the strong correlation between the Country Club of Jackson and Sedgefield Country Club, which hosts the Wyndham. Davis finished 15th at the Wyndham last month and is a good value bet to join the first-time winner ranks this week.

Pick: Cameron Davis to Win (+4600)

Hop Aboard the Tringale Train

Cameron Tringale may technically have a PGA Tour win under his belt, but it came at the gimmicky Franklin Teampleton Shootout partner event six years ago. He’s yet to taste victory on his own, but he’s just two starts removed from a third place finish.

Players who've gained at least 0.5 strokes on the highest percentage of their approach shots this season:

Collin Morikawa, 11.5%
Joel Dahmen, 11.5%
Cameron Tringale, 11.2%
Matt Every, 11.0%
Webb Simpson, 11.0%
(min. 400 measured approach shots)

— Sean Martin (@PGATOURSMartin) June 25, 2020

Tringale was third at the 3M Open back in July and has been one of the best approach players on Tour in 2020. He’s gained at least three strokes with his irons in five of his past eight starts, and is 3-for-3 in made cuts here since 2018. He ranks seventh in the field in proximity from 125-150 yards (another key range) and top-30 in strokes gained putting, birdie or better percentage and Par 5 scoring since the restart.

Pick: Cameron Tringale Top-10 (+800)

Riley Represents Great Value

There are two Korn Ferry Tour standouts starting this week, yet there’s a major discrepancy between their prices. Will Zalatoris, fresh off back-to-back Top-10’s at the U.S. Open and Corales, has the third shortest odds to win this event (+2100), while Davis Riley is a 130-1 longshot.

we talked to 2 KFT players in the last 10 days who the best player out there was…both said Davis Riley.

Zalatoris is 22/1 and Riley is 175/1

— Tour Junkies (@Tour_Junkies) September 29, 2020

These two up-and-comers rank first and third on the Korn Ferry Tour regular season points list, and it’s Riley who’s actually won more events in 2020. The 23-year-old also ranks higher in birdie or better percentage on the KFT (2nd vs 5th) and is considered as good a talent as Zalatoris if not better. I’ll take the huge discount on Riley.

Pick: Davis Riley Top-20 (+500)