Giro d’Italia Odds, Picks, and Best Bets for Stage 3 – Oct 5th

• Stage 3 of the Giro (Monday, October 5) has the first major climb of this year’s event
• GC riders will look to gain time on Monday, but will they win the stage?
• Where is the best betting value Monday in Sicily?

If you like variety, the Giro d’Italia provides it early in the 2020 event. The first stage on Saturday was a time trial; Sunday featured an uphill sprint finish; and Monday will be an opportunity for GC contenders during a mountain stage.

The table below shows the odds to win Stage 3 outright. Which riders offer reasonable betting value?

2020 Giro d’Italia Stage 3 Odds

Odds as of Oct. 4th.

Though Filippo Ganna won the time trial on Saturday and maintained the pink jersey after Sunday’s stage, the biggest statement thus far in the race was the time pre-race favorite Geraint Thomas put between himself and other GC contenders on the opening stage. On Saturday, Thomas distanced himself from Alexander Vlasov by 57 seconds, while Wilco Kelderman, Vincenzo Nibali, Steven Kruijswijk, Jakob Fuglsang, and Rafal Majka were all over a minute behind.

Diego Ulissi outsprinted Peter Sagan and Mikkel Frølich Honoré to take Stage 2. While Sagan might be the stronger pure sprinter, the uphill nature of the conclusion benefited the veteran Italian who captured his eighth career stage of the Giro. There was no major move by GC riders, who are saving energy for certain attacks on Monday.

Ganna holds a 22-second edge over Joao Almeida, with Thomas 23 seconds off the pace. Tobias Foss is 31 ticks back, and Josef Cerny is 36 seconds behind in fifth. Yates, perhaps Thomas’s chief rival, is in eighth place, 49 seconds behind the leader and 26 seconds back of Thomas.

Monday will be the first major climbing day and the only mountainous stage during the first week. The 150 kilometres trip from Enna to Mount Etna will almost surely see GC riders go at each other on Mount Etna, but will there be a breakaway that captures the stage? The final three kilometres on the mountain have an average gradient of 9.1%

The Favorite

The last time the Giro raced up Mt. Etna, there was a breakaway that survived, but the biggest news was the attack Yates mustered to take the pink jersey and gain time on the other GC contenders.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TFqXTDRKfb8

Yates won three stages during that 2018 Giro, and has won stages on each grand tour. He captured the Vuelta a Espana in 2018.

Top Contenders

In one way or another, Thomas is going to be in the mix. He certainly does not need to win the stage in order to eventually take the Giro, but if an attack or breakaway fails, he will be among those battling it out.

Thomas has won three stages of the Tour de France in addition to winning the event in 2018. He is riding in the Giro for a fourth time, but this is only the second occasion he has entered the event since 2012.

Will history repeat itself? Two years ago on the same mountain Esteban Chaves and Giulio Ciccone were the only breakaway riders left with 5km remaining. While Chaves outpowered Ciccone to the line, the Columbian is not in the field this year. There is little doubt Ciccone would like to reverse that memory.

Predicting a breakaway is always difficult. Ciccone proved his ability on a similar stage in the recent past, and there is no other logical mountain stage to try to get away for another week. He has two Giro stage victories and was King of the Mountains in Italy last year.

Longshots

Known as a climber, Majka would seem well equipped to compete on Monday.

In addition to taking a stage in the Giro in 2017, he has three individual stage victories in the Tour de France and won the King of the Mountains in Paris in 2014 and 2016.