Odds on Top-Selling Video Game of 2018

What a year it was for gamers. You could say that 2017 belonged to Nintendo with the launch of their fancy new console (The Switch) and two Game of the Year candidates (The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild and Super Mario Odyssey). Those titles not only got rave reviews but, according to VGChartz, also made a boatload of cash, selling around seven million units, combined. Nintendo had two other top performers, as well: Mario Kart 8 Deluxe, which sold just over 3.5 million units, and Splatoon 2, which sold about 2.6 million.

Will Super Mario and his maker continue hoarding all the coins in 2018? Quite possibly. Nintendo fans are eagerly awaiting the mysterious Metroid Prime 4, which is set to blast its way to the Switch sometime later in the year.

Sony also had a good 2017, finding success with Horizon: Zero Dawn (3.7 million units) and surprise hit Crash Bandicoot N. Sane Trilogy (2.68 million units). They’ll be hoping for more of the same in 2018 from the much-anticipated Spider-Man and The Last of Us 2, which will face stiff competition from the likes of Far Cry 5 (Microsoft).

There is also a lot of buzz about Rockstar Games’ Red Dead Redemption 2. Originally, the western shooter was scheduled to be released in late 2017, but was pushed to Q2 of 2018, which has only created more anticipation.

In the end, only one game will be able to claim the title “best-selling game of 2018” and we’re here to handicap the field. Our calculations and the resulting odds (below) are largely based on performance history, hype, how many platforms the game will be released on.

Call of Duty Black Ops IV: 2/3

Release Date: September 2019
Platform: PS4, Nintendo Switch, Xbox One, Microsoft Windows
Sales Prediction: 25 million units globally

The cycle of Call of Duty games has been a well-oiled machine over the years, with Infinity Ward, Sledgehammer Games, and Treyarch handling a game each time around, then repeating the cycle again. We’ve gotten Infinite Warfare from Infinity, and this year Sledgehammer Games took us back to old-school combat with Call of Duty: WWII.

Now it’s Treyarch’s turn and it appears they are returning to modern times with a new entry into the Black Ops franchise. Back in 2017, Black Ops 3 sold about 26.41 million units globally on all platforms combined. You can expect something similar next year.

Red Dead Redemption 2: 4/1

Release Date: Spring 2018
Platform: PS4, Xbox One
Sales Prediction: 20 million units, globally

This is arguably the most anticipated game of the year, and it could even challenge the likes of Call of Duty for top game of 2018. If you go back to 2010, the original sold 15.23 million units globally. You can expect the sequel to hit around the 20 million mark, if not more.

Not much is known about the the game; Rockstar likes to keep things hush, hush. But I fully expect it to do big sales in a similar vein as Grand Theft Auto 5.

FIFA 19: 9/1

Release Date: September 2019
Platform: Ps3, PS4, Nintendo Switch, Xbox One, Xbox 360, Microsoft Windows
Sales Prediction: 16 million units globally

FIFA is an EA juggernaut with global sales that hover around 15 million units across all platforms. FIFA 18 is trending in the same direction and when FIFA 19 is released in September of 2018, it will follow suit.

Only one problem, there is a rumor circulating that EA might be getting away from annual releases for their big sports titles and going to a subscription service. Not sure if that’s something that will happen in 2018 but it’s definitely where the industry could be moving.

Monster Hunter: World: 19/1

Release Date: PS4, Xbox One
Platform: January 26, 2018
Sales Prediction: 9 million units globally

This will be one of the most talked about games of 2018 and might even change gaming as we know it. Once people realize the sheer fun of grabbing a few buddies and hunting giant beasts for hours at a time, it will be one of the best multiplayer experiences of the decade.

People who have played the original Monster Hunter on the Nintendo systems like 3DS and Wii U know how well this game was put together. Now it’s bigger and better on the PS4 and Xbox One. This should record big sales numbers, but for now, I’m keeping the forecast fairly conservative.

Far Cry 5: 25/1

Release Date: March 27, 2018
Platform: Microsoft Windows, PS4, Xbox One
Sales Prediction: 8 million units globally

This one could go either way. It was actually pushed back to 2018 due to the turbulent state of American politics. Let’s just say the story will hit a little close to home for some. But Far Cry 4 sold just over 8 million units back in 2014, and I personally think some left-wing vs. right-wing ideologies at play will help Far Cry 5′s sales.

THE FIELD: 100/1

Anthem

Release Date: 2018
Platform: Microsoft Windows, PS4, Xbox One
Sales prediction: 8 million units globally

Kingdom Hearts III

Release Date: 2018
Platform: PS4, Xbox One
Sales Prediction: 7 million units globally

Spider-Man

Release Date: Spring 2018
Platform: PS4
Sales Prediction: 7 million units globally

The Last of Us 2

Release Date: 2018
Platform: PS4
Sales Prediction: 6 million units globally

Dragon Ball FighterZ

Release Date: January 26
Platform: Microsoft Windows, PS4, Xbox One
Sales Prediction: 6 million units globally

Sea of Thieves

Release Date: March 20, 2018
Platform: Microsoft Windows, Xbox One
Sales Prediction: 5 million units globally

God of War

Release Date: 2018
Platform: PS4
Sales Prediction: 5 million units globally

Metroid Prime 4

Release Date: 2018
Platform: Nintendo Switch
Sales Prediction: 4 million units globally

Days Gone

Release Date: 2018
Platform: PS4
Sales Prediction: 4 million units globally

Detroit: Become Human

Release Date: 2018
Platform: PS4
Sales Prediction: 3 million units globally