Week 5 College Football Picks Against the Spread

• Check out our Week 5 college football picks against the spread for Saturday (Sep. 28)
• We are red-hot with a 12-3 record on CFB ATS picks so far in 2024
• Below, see my best Week 5 college football picks against the spread

We’re diving into another exciting week of college football action with our Week 5 CFB picks against the spread. This week’s slate features some compelling matchups, including Big Ten clashes and a high-profile non-conference game.

In my Week 5 college football picks against the spread, I’m targeting two underdogs and one road favorite. Among my top Week 5 CFB picks against the spread is a play on Minnesota in their Big Ten showdown with Michigan.

Let’s break down our expert college football picks against the spread for Week 5 (Saturday, September 28th).

Michigan vs Minnesota Odds

All odds as of September 25th at ESPN Sportsbook. Check out the best betting apps for college football against the spread betting.

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ATS Picks #1: Minnesota +9.5 (vs Michigan)

Kicking off my Week 5 college football picks against the spread is a play on the Minnesota Golden Gophers against the Michigan Wolverines. I faded the Wolverines last weekend, which was my only ATS play that didn’t cash. However, I’m not hesitating to back the underdog Gophers this time around.

Minnesota’s offense has been impressive this season, averaging 30.7 points and 350.7 total yards per game so far in 2024. Quarterback Max Brosmer has passed for 436 yards with a 72.5% completion rate, while the run game is averaging 130 yards per contest.

Finally time to play some ball! 7pm CST tonight. LET’S GO!! #RowTheBoat #SkiUMah pic.twitter.com/KOPK4ET8JM

— Max Brosmer (@maxtbro) August 29, 2024

While the Wolverines are coming off an impressive win over USC, their offense has struggled, especially in the passing game. Michigan is averaging just 162.5 passing yards per game and will likely rely heavily on the run once again.

The Gophers are well-equipped to handle Michigan’s run game, allowing only 74.3 rushing yards per game and 2.6 yards per carry. Minnesota can contain Michigan’s ground game and force quarterback Alex Orji to beat them through the air.

This spread has already shifted a bit in Minnesota’s direction. Moreover, when the total is as low as it is here (35.5), taking the underdog ATS is proven long-term profitable.

• Pick: Minnesota +9.5 (-110)

Oklahoma vs Auburn Odds

ATS Picks #2: Oklahoma -2 (vs Auburn)

We’re continuing our CFB Week 5 picks against the spread with a pick that may appear quite ugly on the surface. However, you need to bet ugly if you want to seriously make money on football. With that said, I’m locking in Oklahoma -2 in their clash with Auburn.

The No. 21 Sooners look poised to bounce back strong on the road against the struggling Tigers. Ranked teams that lose by 10+ points cover the spread the following week over 60% of the time. This is due to public perception undervaluing them.

The Sooners have offensive question marks after the Tennessee game, but their defense has been excellent. They held the high-powered Vols to just 25 points after Tennessee had been averaging over 63 points per game. Oklahoma also ranks 4th nationally with 14 sacks through four contests.

On the other side, Auburn’s offense is in complete disarray right now. They managed only 13 points in a home loss to Arkansas last week and have scored 24 or fewer points in 4 straight games against Power 5 opponents dating back to last season.

Both these teams are trying to figure out their quarterback situation, but OU has a nice defensive edge in this matchup. Auburn’s -4 turnover differential is tied for 2nd-worst among Power 5 teams, and I expect OU’s relentless defense to come up with a few big plays to decide this one.

• Pick: Oklahoma -2 (-110)

Penn State vs Illinois Odds

ATS Picks #3: Illinois +18 (vs Penn State)

Concluding my Week 5 college football picks against the spread is a play on Illinois in their Big Ten clash with Penn State. While the Nittany Lions are a top-10 ranked team, 18 points is too many for an undefeated Illini squad that plays opponents tough.

Bret Bielema’s squad is off to a stellar 4-0 start, already notching two ranked wins over Nebraska and Kansas. The Illini are playing with a ton of confidence and momentum after their thrilling 31-24 overtime victory in Lincoln last week.

Illinois Football is 4-0 pic.twitter.com/JlF3xpyxBJ

— Illinois Football Focus (@IlliniFB) September 21, 2024

Illinois also has recent history on its side, covering the spread in eight of its last nine road games against conference foes. With the total set at just 48.5 points, oddsmakers are giving credit to both defenses and forecasting a lower-scoring affair.

While also undefeated, Penn State hasn’t exactly dominated through three games. The Nittany Lions nearly lost as a 34.5-point home favorite to Bowling Green, leading just 14-6 at halftime before pulling away late.

Penn State’s defense, while talented, has taken a step back from last year’s elite unit. They have just four sacks so far after leading the nation with 49 in 2023. With Illinois allowing just 12.5 points per contest so far, I think we see a one or two-possession game.

• Pick: Illinois +18 (-110)

Brady’s 2024 CFB ATS Picks Record: 12-3