College Football Upset Predictions Week 4: Top Underdog Picks Today
By Michael Schwartz in College Football
Published:
- My Week 4 college football upset predictions narrow Saturday’s board to three games
- Home-field advantage and recent quarterback play help separate the underdogs
- Read below for my college football upset picks, prices and matchup breakdowns
A close spread does not automatically make an underdog worth backing outright. Today’s college football slate has several tempting prices, but I want more than a big payout before picking against the favorite.
For my Week 4 college football upset predictions, I compared many matchups and narrowed the list to three. Recent results matter, though a September blowout against an overmatched opponent can hide as much as it reveals.
Below are my top underdog picks for September 26, followed by the matchup evidence and the biggest obstacle for each team. These are individual outright-win selections, not spread bets or a parlay.
College Football Upset Predictions for Week 4
USC and UCF prices checked September 25; Iowa’s +180 checked September 26 at BetMGM Ontario. Local prices may differ.
USC and UCF are short home underdogs on the college football odds board, while Iowa offers a bigger payout on the road at Michigan. All three picks require an outright win.
CFB Upset Pick #1: USC to Win vs Oregon
- Upset pick: USC moneyline (+135 at BetMGM)
Jayden Maiava provides an excellent reason to take the home underdog. Through USC’s first four games, he’s completed 75.7% of his passes for 1,173 yards, 12 touchdowns and one interception. That efficiency makes the Trojans dangerous without needing a string of Oregon mistakes.
The 4-0 Trojans have been especially good early, outscoring opponents 106-24 in first halves. Their second-half margin is a far less convincing 66-67, so I am not overlooking how quickly this game could turn if USC stalls after halftime.
Oregon’s latest result was an 84-0 win over Portland State. The Ducks had scored 65 points and allowed 66 across their first two games, which is the more useful reminder that their defense has faced tougher questions than last Saturday’s score suggests.
I expect Oregon to make USC earn it for four quarters. Still, Maiava’s accuracy and the home setting are enough for me to take +135 rather than settle for the points. Anyone opening an account can check the current BetMGM promo code before placing the pick.
CFB Upset Pick #2: Iowa to Win vs Michigan
- Upset pick: Iowa moneyline (+180 at BetMGM)
Iowa’s defense is why I’m willing to back the road underdog outright. The 3-0 Hawkeyes have allowed just 176.7 yards and 4.3 points per game through three contests, giving them a way to stay close without asking their offense to win a shootout.
The rushing attack offers another route to the upset. Iowa ran for 422 yards in last week’s 55-0 win over Northern Iowa and is averaging 477 total yards per game, although that latest performance came against an FCS opponent. Michigan will provide a much tougher test.
The concern is Hank Brown making his first career road start against a defense allowing only 220 yards per game. Michigan has also won the last four meetings by a combined score of 105-20, so I am not dismissing the challenge of winning in Ann Arbor.
Even with those risks, +180 gives me enough incentive to take Iowa to win. I’m backing its defense to limit Michigan’s possessions and its ground game to keep Brown out of obvious passing situations. That gives the Hawkeyes a credible path to an outright upset, rather than merely a close loss.
CFB Upset Pick #3: UCF to Win vs TCU
- Upset pick: UCF moneyline (+130 at BetMGM)
UCF ran for 304 yards in its 44-30 win over Georgia State, and Duke Watson has 297 yards on 27 carries through three games. I like the Knights’ chances of creating explosive runs at home without needing a pass-heavy afternoon.
That matters because Keyone Jenkins completed seven of 17 passes for 86 yards in his first start last week. UCF has committed only two turnovers through three games, but it needs to keep this manageable for Jenkins rather than chase an early deficit.
TCU has outscored its last two opponents 94-14, and Jaden Craig has already shown he can threaten defenses downfield. This is not a pick against a struggling favorite. I am betting on UCF’s rushing attack to limit how often Craig gets the ball and make this a fourth-quarter game.
At +130, the Knights are my third outright underdog selection. I would keep the stake modest as UCF’s thin passing production leaves less room for error if TCU strikes first.
