Updated UGA vs Alabama Odds & Expert Prediction (Saturday, Sept. 28)

• The Alabama vs Georgia odds have been shifting leading up to kickoff
• Georgia is now favored by 1 point after opening as -3.5 favorites
• Read below for the updated UGA vs Alabama betting line and expert prediction

The Georgia vs Alabama betting line has shifted leading up to Saturday night’s kickoff in Tuscaloosa. The Bulldogs are now slim 1-point favorites after initially being favored by over a field goal.

What’s causing the line movement for Alabama vs Georgia? And what can it tell us about who will win this game?

Let’s dive into the latest UGA-Bama odds and provide our updated expert prediction.

Tide Shifts in Bama-UGA Odds

Bama-UGA odds as of 4:00 PM ET at ESPN Bet.

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Georgia opened as a 3.5-point favorite in the Week 5 CFB odds, but sharp money and injury news has trimmed down the line. The Bulldogs are now only favored by a single point in the hours leading up to kickoff.

One of the reasons for the shift is the Bama-Georgia injury report. UGA is dealing with some key injuries on defense, as star linebacker Mykel Williams and defensive lineman Jordan Hall are both listed as questionable.

Sources: Georgia star defensive lineman Mykel Williams is a gametime decision for the No. 2 Bulldogs at No. 4 Alabama today. It’s considered a “true gametime decision” with his injured ankle. He’s Mel Kiper Jr.’s No. 4 overall NFL Draft prospect. pic.twitter.com/egRcNvi8gS

— Pete Thamel (@PeteThamel) September 28, 2024

On the flip side, Alabama’s injury report is more optimistic. Linebackers Qua Russaw, Jeremiah Alexander, plus running back Richard Young, are expected to be available.

The CFB public betting trends also paint an interesting story. Alabama is getting 32% of the moneyline handle with only 21% of bets. This type of bet-money discrepancy is usually a sign of sharp money.

Game Total Rises

While the spread has shifted towards Alabama, the total has also been on the move. The over/under for this game initially opened at 49.5, but it’s crept over 50 at some sportsbooks. Our expert likes the under in his Georgia vs Alabama prediction.

Alabama’s offense ranks first in offensive explosiveness, while UGA’s isn’t far behind. It’s not hard to see why bettors are expecting plenty of fireworks at Bryant-Denny Stadium tonight.

He GONE! 💨💨💨@JamarionMiller1

📺: ESPN pic.twitter.com/YRcqI6FegX

— Alabama Football (@AlabamaFTBL) September 8, 2024

If Georgia remains banged up on defense, the Bulldogs will obviously have a tougher time dealing with Alabama’s explosive offense. On the other side, UGA should have success running the ball against a Crimson Tide defense ranking bottom-third in the SEC.

However, while the total has climbed a point, it’s worth noting the “under” has cashed in two straight meetings between these two rivals. Last year’s SEC Championship game fell just short of the total with 51 points scored.

Updated Georgia vs Alabama Prediction

It’s hard to like Alabama getting points at home, even without Nick Saban at the helm. Kalen DeBoer has done an excellent job taking over the Alabama football program and leading them to immediate success.

Kirby Smart and the Bulldogs will likely be a more motivated squad given what happened in the SEC Championship. However, this is also DeBoer’s statement game to show he was truly the right guy for the job.

Kalen DeBoer speaks on Alabama being an underdog and bringing ‘LANK’ mentality into Georgia game this Saturday 💪 pic.twitter.com/dhiEv40B0M

— Touchdown Alabama (@TDAlabamaMag) September 24, 2024

DeBoer has been an ATS underdog machine, covering eight of 10 times he’s gotten points. Both times he’s been a home underdog, he’s covered each time. The stage won’t be too big for him after leading Washington to two huge underdog wins against Oregon last season.

Furthermore, Alabama has a few more potential game-breakers than UGA in 17-year-old WR Ryan Williams and running back Jam Miller. I also like the chance of QB Jalen Milroe getting into the endzone with his legs, as discussed in my Bama-UGA props.

Yes, Carson Beck is a Heisman favorite for a reason, but we just saw against Kentucky, he can struggle against good defenses. The absence of key weapons like Brock Bowers and Ladd McConkey are evidently hurting this UGA squad.

I’m not going to be surprised by either team winning, but this feels like a true 50/50 game. When you consider UGA’s 1-8 record vs Bama since 2008, along with the line movement and injury report, the home team is the best bang for your buck.

UGA-Bama Pick:

• Crimson Tide ML (+102 at FanDuel best value)