Texas vs Washington Odds, Lines and Picks – 2022 Alamo Bowl

• #20 Texas is laying 3.5-points in the Texas vs Washington odds ahead of Thursday’s Valero Alamo Bowl
• Longhorns star RB Bijan Robinson will sit out to prepare for the NFL Draft
• Don’t miss the Texas vs Washington odds and predictions below

Bowl season continues on Thursday with a trio of fantastic games. The night cap brings us the best matchup of the day to sweat as #20 Texas (8-4) takes on #12 Washington (10-2) in the Valero Alamo Bowl.

This game is chalk full of interesting stories ahead of kickoff (which we’ll explore), including Longhorns head coach Steve Sarkisian facing his former team. Online sportsbooks are expecting Sarkisian and company to be triumphant, but bettors are wagering heavily against them in the college football odds.

Texas vs Washington Odds

Odds as of December 27 at DraftKings. Get the DraftKings Sportsbook promo code to bet on the Valero Alamo Bowl matchup.

Texas opened as a 3.5-point favorite. That’s where the line currently stands, but likely not be for long. As of Tuesday afternoon, 77% of the spread money is on the Huskies, and that handle is coming from only 53% of the ATS wagers. That means big money backers are rolling with Washington.

Total wise, the game opened at 67.5 and the line hasn’t budged. The betting action is currently split almost exactly down the middle meaning we’re not likely to see any movement before kickoff.

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The action is set to get underway at 9 pm ET inside the Alamodome in San Antonio, Texas, with ESPN providing the coverage.

Texas Longhorns Betting Analysis

Another major story leading into this game is Bijan Robinson’s decision to sit. Texas’ star RB is choosing to prepare for the NFL Draft instead, fresh off a 1,580 rushing yard, 18 TD season.

Robinson ranks fourth all-time on the Longhorns’ rushing list, and became the first Texas player with back-to-back 1,000-yard rushing seasons in 17 years. He’s a top-10 prospect, and recently won the award for the best running back in college. Needless to say, his absence will be felt.

With Robinson out, the Longhorns will lean on Roschon Johnson. The senior back averaged 6.0 yards per carry and scored twice in Texas’ season finale. The Longhorns rushed at a top-47 rate in college football, but will face a stiff test versus Washington’s 34th-ranked run defense that yielded only 3.6 yards per carry.

#Texas RB Bijan Robinson officially enters the 2023 NFL Draft.

His Kansas tape was the best RB tape I’ve studied this year. The lateral balance/burst + instincts to find space = wow plays. #RB1

(Look at Ewers with his hands on his helmet in disbelief) pic.twitter.com/Tut43Lg9UP

— Dane Brugler (@dpbrugler) December 19, 2022

If Texas can’t get the ground game going they’ll need to rely on Quinn Ewers arm, which may not be a good thing. Ewers threw for less than 200 yards in four straight games to close the season. He threw only one TD pass over the final three contests and ended the regular season with an underwhelming 56.6% completion percentage.

The Huskies’ pass defense was a problem this season, however, leaving the door open for a potentially big game for Ewers. Washington ranked 101st against the pass, yielding 8.1 yards per completion.

Sarkisian meanwhile, landed his first head coaching job with the Huskies in 2009. He went 34-29 at Washington over five seasons, winning two of four Bowl Game appearances.

Washington Huskies Betting Analysis

The Huskies are one of the feel-good stories of 2022. This is a team that went 4-8 a season ago, but made incredible strides under first-year head coach Kalen DeBoer. They improved by six games this year to 10-2, marking their first 10-win season since 2018.

Also playing a large role in the program’s transformation was Michael Penix Jr. The Indiana transfer led the nation in passing yards with 4,354, and tossed 29 touchdowns. He’s already committed to returning next season, and could find himself in the Heisman Trophy odds conversation.

As seen on @KING5Sports: My 1-on-1 with UW quarterback Michael Penix Jr.

On his decision to come back, the Heisman hype, what he and the Huskies proved with a 10-win season.@themikepenix | @UW_Football | @UWAthletics pic.twitter.com/Mdj42GyGzj

— Jake García (@Jake_M_Garcia) December 27, 2022

Washington ranked second in total offense behind Tennessee, and averaged 39.7 points per game, the sixth-highest mark in the country. Penix Jr. and co. threw the ball at the nation’s seventh-highest rate (59.8%) and should find success against this Longhorns defense.

Texas ranked 83rd in passing yards allowed, and 102nd in opponent completion percentage. To make matters worse, they don’t generate a ton of pressure ranking 82nd in sack percentage. By contrast, they’re one of the best run defenses in college football so expect the Huskies to keep the ball in the air.

Texas vs Washington Prediction

If you follow the season-long trends, you can make a case for either one of these programs. The Longhorns were 8-4 against the spread, while Washington covered its last three games en route to a 7-5 ATS record.

Both teams were 3-0 against the spread in non-conference games, and both teams had a winning record straight up and ATS versus ranked opposition.

Washington Huskies Recent Bowl Game History

The difference is the loss of Robinson, and the favorable matchup for the Huskies passing game. Texas isn’t being docked enough for the absence of its best player, and sharp bettors are taking advantage of that by hammering Washington.

If you like the Huskies bet them now, because +3.5 likely won’t be available by the time this game kicks off.

Pick: Washington Huskies +3.5 (-120)