Thursday College Football Picks Today: Best Bets & Predictions (Oct. 8)

• My Thursday college football picks today cover three games on the Week 6 slate
• The betting card features a pair of underdog picks against the spread
• Keep reading for my Thursday college football picks today, including best bets and predictions

Thursday’s college football slate includes Sam Houston at Liberty, Missouri State at Western Kentucky and South Alabama at Arkansas State. I am focusing on the spread markets in those three matchups for my college football picks today.

The teams bring different offensive profiles, but turnovers and drive efficiency can be just as useful as raw yardage. My analysis weighs those numbers against the current college football odds rather than relying on records alone.

Below are my Thursday college football picks today, including best bets and predictions. Compare the latest prices on college football betting apps before placing a bet.

College Football Picks Today

Odds as of Oct. 8. New users can claim the BetMGM promo code for a bonus to use on tonight’s action.

Thursday College Football Best Bets and Predictions

The card combines two road underdogs with a short home favorite. Each spread sets a different margin to clear; compare that number as well as the price when shopping the market.

College Football Picks Today #1: Sam Houston +13.5

• Sam Houston +13.5 (-111 at BetMGM)

My Sam Houston vs Liberty prediction takes the points against a Flames team with a potent offense, averaging 30.4 points and 416.8 total yards per game. However, the Sam Houston Bearkats are not about to be outclassed in the trenches. They match up brilliantly, producing 27.8 points and 408.0 yards per contest while maintaining excellent pocket presence.

Ball security will dictate the field position battle in this clash. Both squads are elite at protecting the football, with Liberty holding a +3 turnover differential and Sam Houston sitting right behind at +1. Because these teams mirror each other so closely in overall production, this spread feels entirely overinflated.

Despite Liberty boasting an 85.7% red zone efficiency, Sam Houston counters with an equally impressive 81.8% mark inside the 20-yard line. Sam Houston has the offensive consistency to go blow-for-blow and avoid falling off a cliff late. I am confidently backing the road underdog to keep this within the number.

College Football Picks Today #2: Western Kentucky -1.5

• Western Kentucky -1.5 (-112 at bet365)

My Missouri State vs Western Kentucky prediction backs the home team, even though the Bears arrive with a slightly more productive offense on paper, scoring 23.5 points per game. Conversely, the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers are only mustering 19.8 points on average. However, the visitors are dealing with a concerning -6 turnover differential.

Western Kentucky relies on methodical defensive schemes and can counter any ground and pound approach on critical downs. Western Kentucky secures third down conversions at a reliable 38.3% clip, besting Missouri State’s sluggish 31.4% rate. Sustaining drives and keeping the chains moving will be the ultimate difference-maker in this tight spread.

When it comes to finishing drives, Western Kentucky truly separates itself. They score on 84.6% of their red-zone trips, completely eclipsing Missouri State’s 75.0% success rate. That superior situational execution makes laying the short -1.5 at home my preferred side in a close matchup. Tail this pick using the bet365 bonus code.

College Football Picks Today #3: South Alabama +3

• South Alabama +3 (-116 at theScore Bet)

My South Alabama vs Arkansas State prediction takes a live road underdog with a statistically overwhelming attack. They average 35 points and a massive 451 total yards per game, easily eclipsing the Arkansas State Red Wolves and their 24 points. South Alabama’s air raid offense can strike quickly from anywhere on the field. For context, their offensive numbers are on par with some of the favorites in the National Championship odds.

Beyond raw yardage, South Alabama maintains a stellar +5 turnover differential, ensuring they constantly win the hidden yardage battle. Arkansas State manages 348.4 total yards per game but lacks the explosive ceiling to pull away. South Alabama is practically built to cover this number as a field goal underdog.

Both offenses keep the chains moving efficiently, with South Alabama converting 46.1% on third down and Arkansas State right behind at 45.5%. They also share identical 85.7% red-zone efficiencies. However, South Alabama’s overwhelming yardage advantage and ball security make taking the points my preferred play.