Minnesota vs Michigan Prediction, Odds & Best Bets (Saturday, Sep. 28)

• We’ve made our Minnesota vs Michigan prediction for Saturday afternoon on FOX
• The latest Minnesota vs Michigan odds heavily favor Sherron Moore’s team at home
• Read below for Minnesota vs Michigan odds, prediction and best bets

The Minnesota Golden Gophers (2-2, 0-1 Big Ten) travel to Michigan Stadium to face the No. 12 Michigan Wolverines (3-1, 1-0 Big Ten) on Saturday, September 28, 2024. Kickoff is set for 12:00 p.m. ET on FOX.

Michigan enters as a 9.5-point favorite with the over/under at 35.5 points, per BetMGM. Do the Gophers stand any chance of pulling the upset on the road?

Let’s explore the Minnesota vs Michigan odds as we make our prediction for Saturday’s Big Ten battle.

Minnesota vs Michigan Odds

The Wolverines are substantial favorites, with a -361 moneyline implying a 78.3% win probability. Minnesota’s +280 moneyline gives them a 26.3% chance of an upset. The -9.5 spread suggests Michigan should win by double-digits.

Michigan’s heavy favorite status stems from their talent edge and home-field advantage. They’re coming off an impressive 27-24 upset over USC, while Minnesota lost 31-14 to Iowa.

The Wolverines also lead the all-time series 77-25-3. The low 35.5 over/under indicates a defensive battle is likely.

Gophers Betting Analysis

Minnesota’s offense, led by QB Max Brosmer, ranks just 104th in total yards (335 ypg). The New Hampshire transfer has thrown for 836 yards and 5 TDs but is coming off a rough outing vs Iowa with 2 INTs. WR Daniel Jackson (59 catches, 8 TDs since 2023) is his top target.

RB Darius Taylor leads the ground game, averaging 6.3 ypc. He’ll be key as the Gophers try to control the clock and keep the ball away from Michigan’s offense.

DARIUS TAYLOR CANNOT BE STOPPED 🏃‍♂️

His 3️⃣rd TD of the day is an 80-yard rushing TD 💨#B1GFootball on @BigTenNetwork 📺 pic.twitter.com/lso5BHrt9m

— Big Ten Network (@BigTenNetwork) September 14, 2024

The Gophers’ defense allows just 12.5 ppg (15th) and boasts an elite pass defense that hasn’t allowed over 117 passing yards in a game. However, the run defense has been gashed, surrendering 272 rush yards to Iowa.

To pull the upset, Minnesota must slow down Michigan’s rushing attack and force QB Alex Orji to win through the air. But the Gophers are just 2-2 ATS and 0-2 as underdogs this year.

Wolverines Betting Analysis

Redshirt sophomore QB Alex Orji makes his second start after a solid debut vs USC (7/12, 32 pass yds, 43 rush yds). The dual-threat will lean on a powerful backfield duo in Kalel Mullings (159 rush yds, 2 TD vs USC) and Donovan Edwards.

Michigan’s inconsistent passing game may not need to do much against Minnesota’s vulnerable run defense. Expect the Wolverines to pound the rock, especially after seeing Iowa rush for 272 yards vs the Gophers.

Donovan Edwards finds a gap. Donovan Edwards takes it in! pic.twitter.com/qm9pC9CWX0

— Michigan Football (@UMichFootball) September 21, 2024

Defensively, Michigan has reloaded despite losing stars to the NFL. DTs Mason Graham and Kenneth Grant clog the middle, while edge rushers Josaiah Stewart and Derrick Moore provide pressure. CB Will Johnson is an All-American candidate.

The Wolverines are 3-1 but just 1-3 ATS, failing to cover in both games as a 9.5+ point favorite. They’ve also hit the over in all four games.

Minnesota vs Michigan Prediction

Although Michigan is the clear favorite in the Week 5 CFB odds, I’m backing Minnesota to cover the 9.5-point spread in what should be a low-scoring, grind-it-out Big Ten battle.

The Gophers’ elite pass defense, which hasn’t allowed over 117 passing yards in a game, will make life difficult for Michigan QB Alex Orji in his second start. While the Wolverines will lean heavily on their rushing attack, Minnesota should be able to keep the game competitive by forcing Michigan into obvious passing situations.

Michigan beat USC, but that's burying the lede: Michigan can't throw the football with Alex Orji, and Davis Warren should start. Let's dig into the numbers. 🧵 pic.twitter.com/JvjqvugVTn

— Ed Feng (@thepowerrank) September 26, 2024

On the other side, Minnesota’s offense will struggle to move the ball consistently against a stout Michigan defense. However, the Gophers’ ability to control the clock with RB Darius Taylor and avoid turnovers will be key in keeping this game within one score.

With a low total of 35.5 points, every possession will matter. I expect Minnesota to slow the pace, shorten the game, and limit Michigan’s offensive possessions. The Gophers may not have enough firepower to pull off the outright upset, but I believe they’re a solid bet to cover the spread.

• Pick: Minnesota +9.5 (-110)