Louisville vs Wake Forest Prediction, Odds & Saturday Best Bet
By Ryan Potts in College Football
Published:
- Louisville hosts Wake Forest at noon ET Saturday after beating SMU 41-31
- Wake Forest’s latest rushing performance adds a useful wrinkle to this ACC matchup
- My Louisville vs Wake Forest prediction, Kalshi prices and recent-results comparison are below
Louisville looks to continue rolling after a 41-31 win over SMU, while Wake Forest arrives looking to recover from a 33-20 loss to Miami. Both teams are 2-1 heading into Saturday’s noon ET meeting at L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium.
The Cardinals’ running game was productive last week as Keyjuan Brown tallied 163 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Wake Forest had a very different afternoon on the ground, leaving its passing attack to do most of the work against Miami. UNC transfer Gio Lopez threw for 312 yards and three touchdowns as Jack Foley caught six passes for 118 yards and a score.
My Louisville vs Wake Forest prediction focuses on the total rather than laying a large spread. Below are the reasons for that choice, the Kalshi prices, and a closer look at what each team showed last week.
Louisville vs Wake Forest Prediction
- Best bet: Under 57.5 points (No at 51¢ on Kalshi)
I’m taking the under. Louisville ran for 265 yards against SMU, giving it a way to move the ball without needing a fast, pass-heavy game. If the Cardinals establish another lead, I expect that rushing attack to remain central to their plan.
I have faith in Lincoln Kienholz, an Ohio State transfer who has a pair of 300-yard games under his belt, but he has generally not been asked to carry the workload. He has yet to throw even 30 passes in a game this season. That said, he has 10 total touchdowns in three games and zero interceptions.
Wake Forest’s rushing production is the other reason I lean this way. The Demon Deacons finished with just 22 net rushing yards against Miami. Their passing game kept them involved, but another one-dimensional afternoon would make sustained drives harder to string together.
Even with the one-dimensional offense, the Demon Deacons were not killed in time of possession, maintaining the ball for over 26 minutes even as Miami ran for over 150 yards.
There is a clear concern on the other side. Louisville allowed SMU 479 total yards, including 257 rushing yards, despite winning. The Cardinals’ offense can also do substantial damage by itself. My under depends on longer possessions and fewer easy drives, not an assumption that Louisville has an elite defense. Louisville does have a potential first-round pick in Clev Lubin though who had 8.5 sacks and five pass deflections last season for the Cardinals.
Louisville vs Wake Forest Odds
Kalshi buy prices checked for the September 26 matchup. Fees are not included.
Louisville is a clear favorite to win, but the total is priced much closer to an even contest. My 51¢ No selection wins if the teams combine for 57 points or fewer. A winning contract returns $1 before fees; 58 or more points loses.
Readers comparing platforms can browse prediction market apps. If you choose this market, check the current Kalshi promo code before opening an account. These cents prices are different from the American odds shown on the college football odds board.
What Each Team Showed Last Week
Louisville’s win was built more on the ground than through the air. Kienholz did not need a huge passing total for the Cardinals to score 41 points, which supports my expectation that they can lean on the run again if the game stays comfortable.
Wake Forest’s split is harder to ignore. Nearly all of its yardage against Miami came through the air, and the offense converted four of 12 third downs. If Louisville can force the same imbalance, the Demon Deacons may struggle to keep enough possessions alive to push this total over.
Biggest Risk to the Under
Both teams were involved in higher-scoring games last week, so the under is not a simple play on recent final scores. Louisville’s matchup with SMU produced 72 points, while Wake Forest and Miami combined for 53. I put more weight on how those offenses moved the ball.
A few explosive passes from Lopez or a short-field score could undo the pick. I still prefer Under 57.5 to choosing a side at this spread: Louisville’s ground game and Wake Forest’s uneven rushing production give me a clearer case for the total.
Ryan Potts is a veteran football and baseball content creator. He was previously a credentialed NFL media member, covering the draft, combine, and Super Bowl. He has been featured on Atlanta sports talk radio and Arizona student radio. Ryan is a journalism graduate from the University of Arizona.
