Kentucky vs Texas Prediction, Odds, SGP & Injury Report (Nov. 23)

• We’ve made our Kentucky vs Texas prediction for Saturday’s SEC clash
• The latest odds favor the Longhorns by nearly three touchdowns at home
• Read below for our Kentucky vs Texas picks, odds, SGP and injury news

The #3 Texas Longhorns (9-1, 5-1 SEC) look to inch closer to an SEC Championship berth as they host the Kentucky Wildcats (4-6, 1-6 SEC) at DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium in Austin on Saturday, November 23, 2024.

Texas is fresh off a gritty 20-10 win at Arkansas, while Kentucky snapped a four-game slide with a 48-6 rout of FCS foe Murray State. Kickoff is set for 3:30 p.m. ET on ABC.

Let’s dive into our Kentucky vs Texas prediction and best bets for this Week 13 SEC matchup.

Kentucky vs Texas Prediction

Don’t sleep on the ‘Cats in this one. While Texas boasts an elite defense allowing just 11.9 points per game (4th in FBS), their recent offensive inconsistency is concerning. QB Quinn Ewers and the Horns have scored 27 points or less in three of their last four games.

Kentucky, despite their 4-6 record, has shown an ability to rise to the occasion against top teams. The Wildcats lost by just one point to Georgia and upset Ole Miss on the road as heavy underdogs. Head coach Mark Stoops has his squad playing physical, ball-control football.

Mark Stoops gave an excellent answer tonight regarding his future at Kentucky. He sounds like a guy focused on this team and the program's future.

"No time to whine or worry. It's more like, let's get some sh!t done." pic.twitter.com/08ONTeIaoH

— Lee K. Howard ☀️ (@HowardWKYT) November 22, 2024

The biggest key will be Kentucky’s defense, which gets several key players back from injury. If they can force a turnover or two and keep Texas’ explosive plays in check, the ‘Cats have a real shot to cover this hefty spread.

Texas is also in a prime lookahead spot with a massive rivalry game against Texas A&M on deck. It’s only natural for an 18-23 year old roster to peek ahead in this situation.

For my official Kentucky vs Texas prediction, I’m backing Big Blue to cover +18.5. I expect a lower-scoring, grind-it-out affair that sees the Wildcats hang around into the fourth quarter. The Longhorns win, but fail to cover, something like 33-17.

Kentucky-Texas Pick

• Kentucky +18.5 (-110 at Caesars)

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Kentucky vs Texas Odds

The Longhorns opened as massive 21.5-point home favorites, but that number has dropped two points leading up to kickoff. The Moneyline sees Texas at -1100 and Kentucky +700.

The over/under hit the board at 47.5 points and has slightly dipped to 47.0 as of Saturday afternoon.

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Odds as of Nov. 23, 2024 at 12:30 p.m. ET at Caesars Sportsbook. 

The hefty spread reflects Texas’ dominant defense and status as national title odds contenders. However, the relatively low total points to a potentially slower-paced, grinding affair.

Kentucky vs Texas Props & SGP

Here are my favorite player props for Saturday’s SEC battle in Austin:

Brock Vandagriff Over 0.5 Passing TDs (-130)

The Wildcats’ QB has tossed a TD pass in five of his last six games, despite averaging just 19 pass attempts during that span. Even in a run-heavy attack, I like Vandagriff’s chances of finding the end zone at least once against a tough Texas D.

Same Game Parlay (+1000)

This SGP aligns with our expectations for a tighter, lower-scoring game than oddsmakers predict. Golden has scored in three straight games and is UT’s most reliable red zone threat.

If you wish to bet our same-game parlay, sign up at Bet365 and take advantage of the 30% profit boost on CFB parlays featuring at least three selections. If you place a $10 bet on our SGP and it hits, you’ll get back $110 with the boost applied.

Kentucky vs Texas Injury Report

Both the Longhorns and Wildcats have some key players on the injury report heading into Saturday’s matchup.

For Texas, WR DeAndre Moore Jr. is questionable after suffering a leg injury against Arkansas last week. Moore has been a key target for QB Quinn Ewers, tallying 263 yards and five TDs in 10 games. Head coach Steve Sarkisian noted, “He’s progressing this week. We’ll see if he’ll be ready to go here Saturday, but we’re surely a better team when he’s out there.”

In more positive news for the Horns, LB Morice Blackwell and EDGE Colton Vasek are both probable after missing time recently. Their return would provide a boost to Texas’ elite defense.

Colton Vasek Getting money out there #TexasFight #Hookem pic.twitter.com/Mh1sxjjvQe

— 🤘🏾 LEX 🤘🏾 (@LEXISJONES1) September 29, 2024

On the Kentucky side, OLB J.J. Weaver is probable after missing the last few games with an ankle injury. His presence would be a major boost to the Wildcats’ pass rush. However, DL Kahlil Saunders and OL Courtland Ford remain questionable.

The good news for UK is that several key starters who missed the Murray State game, including WR Barion Brown, DL Deone Walker, and LB Jamon Dumas-Johnson, are all expected to play. However, the Wildcats will still be without normal starters at right tackle (Gerald Mincey) and middle linebacker (D’Eryk Jackson).

Here are the full injury reports for both teams:

Texas

Kentucky