Is Jake Fromm Really the Best Value in the 2019 Heisman Futures Odds?

• Georgia’s Jake Fromm is viewed as one of the top-three quarterback prospects
• The Bulldogs have a new offensive coordinator in James Coley and return four starting offensive linemen
• Fromm has 54 touchdowns and 13 interceptions in his first two seasons.

Jake Fromm is viewed as one of the top two or three quarterback prospects in the country. However, when you take a look at the odds to win the Heisman Trophy in 2019, he’s tied for seventh on the list. ESPN analyst Kirk Herbstreit feels there’s great value with Fromm (see tweet below) but is he actually a good value bet at his current 2019 Heisman odds?

2019 Heisman Trophy Odds

*Odds as of July 23, 2019.

Fromm Viewed Among Top Prospects

Fromm is expected to be one of the top two or three quarterbacks off the board at the 2020 NFL Draft. He’s up there with Alabama’s Tua Tagovailoa and Oregon’s Justin Herbert. He has great patience in the pocket, has good anticipation with his throws, and shows great leadership.

#GoDawgs #UGA https://t.co/NkKCUsjowI Kirk Herbstreit likes Jake Fromm’s Heisman value, says he’s ‘arguably the best leader in the country’ pic.twitter.com/INylpdS02S

— Georgia Bulldogs #1 (@DAWGSNO1) July 22, 2019

What scouts are going to want to see from him this year is better ball placement, a little bit better decision-making, and improved play under pressure. We’ve seen that, when he gets in rhythm, he’s stellar. When he’s out of it, the Georgia offense really deflates.

Fromm Hasn’t Put Up Big Numbers … Yet

One of the reasons why Fromm is where he is in terms of the 2019 Heisman odds is because he hasn’t exactly shined in terms of statistics. He passed for 2,615 yards, 24 touchdowns, and seven interceptions in 2017 and had 2,749 yards, 30 touchdowns and six picks in 2018. He won’t win the award if he puts up another season like that.

For comparison, Tua Tagovailoa had 3,966 passing yards, 43 touchdowns, and just six interceptions last year. The question is: will Georgia’s offense open things up? They’ve been mostly a run-oriented unit but they now have a new offense run by James Coley. If they start airing it out, Fromm could do very well.

Other Players In Better Positions

The challenge with betting Fromm is that we know what Georgia’s been in the past. Might they change their colors now and start airing it out? Possibly. But they also have an awesome running back in D’Andre Swift, who is also a Heisman Trophy contender.

At the same time, the receiving corps lost plenty as receivers Riley Ridley, Mecole Hardman, and tight end Isaac Nauta are gone. That trio finished 1-2-3 in receiving yards on the team in 2018. So they’re rebuilding in this area and  have a great running back, but are going to rely on the passing game? That’s not the most likely scenario.

Other quarterbacks are in better situations. We know that Oklahoma plays plenty of shootouts and loves to throw it around, so that’s good for Jalen Hurts. Tagovailoa has already proven just how quickly he can pile up the stats.

Lastly, Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence is a stud and has a breeze of a schedule in front of him.

If you want to bet on someone from Georgia, bet Swift, who has the same odds at +1400. He’ll be a bigger beneficiary of that awesome offensive line than Fromm. At the very least, his stats should be more impressive.