Georgia vs Alabama Betting Line, Pick & Prediction (Sep. 28)

• #2 Georgia is now a 1-point favorite over #4 Alabama in Week 5 College Football action on Saturday, September 28
• The Crimson Tide is a home underdog for the first time since 2007
• Don’t miss the latest Georgia vs Alabama betting line, pick and prediction below

It will be unfamiliar territory for #4 Alabama (3-0, 0-0 SEC) on Saturday when they host #2 Georgia (3-0, 1-0 SEC). That’s because for the first time since 2007, a span of 90 home games, the Crimson Tide will be getting points on their own field.

You have to go all the way back to November of 2007 versus LSU, to find the last time Alabama was a home underdog in the College Football odds. They fell 41-34 on that night, and online sportsbooks are expecting a similar result on Saturday, albeit in a much lower-scoring game.

Georgia vs Alabama Odds

The Crimson Tide are currently 1-point underdogs, in a contest with a total of 49.5. The opening line for this contest was Georgia -4.5 over the summer, but Alabama has arguably been the more impressive team through four weeks. At their current price, the Tide is drawing 33% of the money, and that’s off only 19% of the ML tickets.

Kickoff is slated for 7:30 pm ET at Bryant-Denny stadium, in Tuscaloosa, AL, with ABC and ESPN+ providing the broadcast coverage.

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Odds as of September 28 (11am ET) at Caesars Sportsbooks. Be sure to check out the best Caesars Sportsbook promos before placing a bet on any Week 5 College Football matchup.

Georgia Struggling to Click Offensively

One of the reasons Alabama is getting so much respect against the National Championship odds favorites, is because the Georgia offense has been a disappointment. They’ve failed to score a touchdown in the first half of two of their first three games, and managed only 13 points last time out versus Kentucky.

The Bulldogs currently rank seventh offensively per SP+, but are converting only 58% of their red zone trips into touchdowns. They’re racking up 400 yards of offense per contest, but rank just 65th nationally in yards per play.

QB Carson Beck, who began the season as a Heisman Trophy odds favorite, needs to get the ball to his elite weapons more frequently. Trevor Etienne, Dillon Bell and Dominic Lovett have combined for only two touchdowns so far, which is well below expectation. If there’s a weakness on the Tide’s defense it’s in the secondary, and the pressure will be on Beck’s shoulders to take advantage.

The latest edition of Georgia-Alabama is going to be A MOVIE 🍿 pic.twitter.com/YeBHw7NvAz

— ESPN (@espn) September 25, 2024

On the other side of the ball, the defense has been nothing short of incredible. They’ve yielded only 18 points so far, and held Clemson to a field goal in their season opener. They rank 4th nationally in total defense, and are the only team in the country that hasn’t given up a touchdown. To make matters worse for Alabama, Georgia is expected to return multiple key defensive starters that have been out due to injury.

Milroe Will Need to Produce Magic

Alabama’s chances for offensive success rest in the hands of Jalen Milroe. The top-3 Heisman candidate beat the Bulldogs in the SEC Championship game last year. He threw 2 TD passes and rushed 14 times, and this season he’s been running more than ever. Milroe is averaging 12 carries, 52 yards and 2 rushing TD per game, helping Bama average 49 points per outing.

The junior pivot has also thrown 8 TD, connecting with freshman Ryan Williams four times. Williams is averaging 28.5 yards per reception, and the deep passing game combined with Milroe’s rushing prowess is what Alabama will bank on to stay in this contest. It’s worth noting however, Georgia has been immune to giving up explosive plays all season. Through three weeks, they’ve surrendered a total of two plays of 20+ yards.

Defensively, the Tide will present the Bulldogs’ biggest challenge to date. They’re yielding only 3.3 yards per play, and have allowed just two touchdowns through three games.

Georgia vs Alabama Prediction

If you’re into trends, you’ll likely be backing Georgia on Saturday. The Bulldogs have won 42 consecutive regular season games, and own a 16-game road winning streak. Since 2021, the only head coach to beat Kirby Smart’s team is Nick Saban, and he now patrols the ESPN studio as opposed to the Alabama sideline.

Georgia vs Alabama Defensive Stats

Personally, I believe there’s more value on the total. It’s highly unlikely that Georgia holds the Tide without a touchdown; however, they can negate Alabama’s strength, which is explosive plays. The Tide have lived off 20+ yard gains this season, averaging seven per contest. 13 of their 21 total touchdowns have come off explosive plays, but that’s simply not a sustainable percentage versus this elite Georgia defense.

The Bulldogs will force Alabama to be patient and settle for smaller gains, something they absolutely don’t want to do. On the other side, until the Georgia offense starts clicking, we cannot expect a high-totaled game, especially versus a very stout Tide defense.

• Under 49.5 (-110)