Georgia vs Texas Early Prediction, Odds & Spread – SEC Championship

• The #2 Texas Longhorns are a 2.5-point favorite over the #5 Georgia Bulldogs in the SEC Championship Game (December 7)
• The Longhorns boast the nation’s top pass defense
• Check out the Georgia vs Texas early prediction, odds, and spread, below

The #5 Georgia Bulldogs and #2 Texas Longhorns both appear to be playoff bound, but first they must decide the SEC Championship, which will grant the winner a first-round bye in the first-ever 12-team College Football Playoff bracket.

The Bulldogs trounced the Longhorns in this same matchup a month and a half ago, but online sportsbooks aren’t expecting a repeat performance in the latest college football odds.

Georgia vs Texas Odds

Texas opened as -1.5-point favorites, before quickly getting bet up to -2.5. Some books even moved to -3, but that triggered an immediate buy back, pushing the number back down below a field goal. Total-wise, the number is also on the way down per the college football public betting splits. The over/under opened at 50.5, but now sits at 49.

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Kickoff for the SEC Championship Game is set for 4 pm ET from Mercedes-Benz Stadium, in Atlanta, GA, with ABC providing the broadcast coverage.

Why the Longhorns Love

The Longhorns didn’t play a perfect game last week in their 17-7 win over Texas A&M, but there’s still plenty to like about them in this matchup.

Let’s start with their defense. They held the Aggies scoreless, with A&M’s only points coming via a pick-six. The Longhorns D completely neutralized Marcel Reed and Co., limiting them to just 248 yards. Strong defense is nothing new to Texas, as few teams are as strong on that side of the ball – as we’ll discuss.

TEXAS. GEORGIA.

ROUND 2 IN THE SEC CHAMPIONSHIP 🏆 pic.twitter.com/grgXjiXUFI

— SEC Network (@SECNetwork) December 1, 2024

Offensively, the results weren’t pretty, but there are positives to take away. While Quinn Ewers struggled through his ankle injury, the ground game came alive. Quintrevion Wisner rushed for 186 yards in the victory, a week after pounding the rock for 156 yards against a very good Kentucky team.

Stopping the run is a major flaw in the Georgia defense at the moment, and with Ewers operating at less than 100%, expect Texas to run the ball relentlessly.

Why Texas Matches Up Well vs Georgia

That’s been the game plan against the Bulldogs for multiple weeks and it’s been an effective one. Gone are the days when Georgia could suffocate its opponent. These days they’re trending towards the bottom of the conference on D, and are having trouble just getting stops.

The Bulldogs rank ninth in the SEC in yards allowed and run defense, and seventh in scoring D. They allowed 226 rushing yards two weeks ago versus UMass, and then 260 yards on the ground to Georgia Tech.

Georgia SEC Defensive Ranks

The Yellow Jackets put up 42 points against them in an eight overtime thriller, marching up and down the field at will.

On the bright side, the Georgia offense is looking as good as ever, with Carson Beck living up to his preseason hype. Beck has strung together three straight impressive starts, posting an 11-to-0 TD-to-INT rate, en route to a trio of victories. He’s led Georgia to an average of 45 points per outing during that stretch, posting a passer rating north of 150.0 in each contest.

The problem for the Bulldogs in this matchup, is you cannot throw on Texas. Only Ohio State allows fewer points and yards per game, and no program is better against the pass.

Georgia vs Texas Early Prediction

Given how much Georgia loves to air it out, and the perceived advantage for the Longhorns on the ground, you can’t argue with the line moving towards Texas.

Casual bettors will look back to the Bulldogs based on their earlier win in this matchup, but that’s a mistake. The Longhorns turned the ball over a season-high four times, gifting Georgia short fields, which they capitalized on. The Bulldogs aren’t likely to be so fortunate this time around, and will have to grind for every point.

Texas held Beck to just passing 173 yards and 4.3 yards per attempt in their first meeting, and while that sounds like an outlier, that’s right in line with their season long stats.

Sharp money bumped the line in the Longhorns favor early on and that looks like the right side to play as long as the number stays short of a field goal.

• Georgia vs Texas Early Pick: Texas -2.5 (-110)