Friday College Football Picks – Expert Predictions for Dec. 6

• Conference Championship Friday features two compelling underdogs
• Army’s nation-leading rushing attack poses problems for Tulane
• Boise State’s Ashton Jeanty could be X-factor in Mountain West title game

It’s conference championship time, and Friday night brings us two games that should have bettors’ full attention. Army aims to upset Tulane in the AAC Championship, while Boise State looks to defend their Mountain West crown against UNLV.

Both games have me eyeing some serious betting value, with Army’s dominant ground game presenting problems for Tulane and Boise State’s momentum suggesting they could roll at home.

Let’s break down Friday’s conference championship schedule and dive into our expert predictions for tonight’s action.

Friday Conference Championship Odds

Odds as of Dec. 6 from ESPN Sportsbook. Bet $10 and get $100 with our ESPN Bet promo code.

In the Friday conference championship odds, Army has shortened to a 5-point underdog against Tulane after being listed at 5.5. Meanwhile, Boise State is favored by 4 points at home against UNLV in a rematch of their October thriller.

Let’s analyze our conference championship predictions for these games offering serious betting value.

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Army vs Tulane Prediction

I’m really liking Army in this spot. The Black Knights aren’t just bringing any rushing attack to West Point – they’re bringing the nation’s best ground game (312.5 YPG) into a cold-weather matchup that sets up perfectly for their style. They’ve won eight straight conference games and are battle-tested after recently facing Notre Dame and UTSA.

The betting market seems to agree with me here, as this line has dropped from Tulane -5.5 to -5. That movement suggests sharp money sees value on the home underdog, and the metrics back that up.

Almost time ⏳ pic.twitter.com/BwTIMzOSqy

— Army Football (@ArmyWP_Football) December 6, 2024

Army leads the AAC in scoring defense (15.1 PPG) and their methodical offensive approach could frustrate a Tulane team that struggled with tempo control in their recent loss to SMU.

History favors service academies in these spots, too, as Army is 19-9 ATS as an underdog since 2020. Meanwhile, the “under” in CFB conference title games is 7-3 when temps are below freezing. The cold weather and Army’s ball-control style should keep this close throughout.

I’m taking the points here – Army’s style is built for December football at West Point.

• Pick: Army +5 (-110 at ESPN Bet)

Boise State vs UNLV Prediction

Switching gears to our nightcap in Boise, I love the Broncos to cover. They aren’t just riding momentum – they’ve been absolutely rolling with 10 straight wins. Star running back Ashton Jeanty has been unstoppable, leading the nation with 2,288 rushing yards and positioning himself for potential Heisman consideration with another big performance.

While UNLV kept things close in their October meeting (29-24 Boise win), the rematch being on the blue turf is significant. The Broncos are 4-1 ATS in their last five Friday night home games, and quarterback Maddux Madsen has been nearly perfect on blue turf with just two picks.

The metrics favor Boise State as well. Their offensive line ranks top-10 nationally in several key metrics. UNLV’s defense, meanwhile, has shown cracks lately, ranking just 40th in the FBS in play-action coverage grade. The Rebels truly struggle to defend mobile quarterbacks, which plays right into Madsen’s dual-threat capabilities.

Between Boise’s championship experience and Jeanty’s dominance, I’m confidently laying the points with the Broncos as they punch their ticket to the expanded playoff.

• Pick: Boise State -4 (-110 at ESPN Bet)