Expert Clemson vs Texas Prediction & Updated Odds – College Football Playoff Round 1

• We’ve made our expert Clemson vs Texas prediction for Saturday
• The latest Clemson vs Texas odds favor the Longhorns by two touchdowns
• Read below for Texas vs Clemson prediciton, updated odds, line movement and trends

The college football world will have its eyes on Austin, Texas this Saturday, December 21 as the #12 Clemson Tigers (10-3) battle the #5 Texas Longhorns (11-2) in a blockbuster CFP Round 1 matchup. Kickoff from Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium is set for 4:00 p.m. ET with the game broadcast nationally on TNT.

This ACC vs SEC clash has massive stakes, with the winner advancing to face #4 Arizona State in the Peach Bowl Quarterfinal. Oddsmakers have installed Texas as hefty 13.5-point home favorites, with the over/under total sitting at 49.5 points.

Let’s dive into our expert Clemson vs Texas prediction, as well as updated odds and trends.

Clemson vs Texas Prediction

It’s been a rollercoaster ride to the playoff for Dabo Swinney’s Tigers. After a shocking loss to South Carolina, they needed a minor miracle just to make the ACC title game. But Clemson took advantage, upsetting SMU 34-31 to improbably punch their ticket.

QB Cade Klubnik (3,303 yards, 33 TD, 5 INT) has been remarkably efficient and clutch, with memorable performances like his game-winning 50-yard TD run against Pitt.

Texas, meanwhile, is still smarting from a second loss to Georgia, this one a 22-19 overtime heartbreaker in the SEC Championship. The Longhorns boast one of the nation’s best defenses, ranking 3rd in points allowed (12.5 PPG).

But the Texas offense has sputtered lately, failing to top 20 points in 4 of their last 7. QB Quinn Ewers (2,665 yards, 25 TD) is nursing an ankle injury which has limited the passing game.

I think this spread is an overreaction to the SEC Championship result. Yes, Texas is elite defensively, but their offense is too one-dimensional right now. Clemson’s defense is no slouch either, ranking 8th in Havoc. The Tigers also have significant statistical edges in key areas like turnovers (10th allowed vs Texas’ 115th) and turnover margin (+16 vs +6).

Cade Klubnik and Quinn Ewers faced one another in the 2020 Texas 6A D-1 State Championship Game.

Today, they play again in the first round of the College Football Playoff 😤

📺 4 PM ET | TNT/Max pic.twitter.com/qxTm0TZchx

— ESPN College Football (@ESPNCFB) December 21, 2024

Swinney’s playoff experience (6-4 in CFP games, two titles) and Klubnik’s return to his hometown of Austin give Clemson intriguing upset potential. The Tigers were left for dead after the South Carolina loss, so everything from here is gravy. That loose, nothing-to-lose mentality is dangerous this time of year.

The current spread of Texas -13.5 seems inflated. In a game I see coming down to the wire, grabbing nearly two touchdowns with a resilient Clemson team that’s shown it can compete with the best is too much value to pass up.

At the end of the day, I’m rolling with Clemson +13.5. Believe in Dabo, Klubnik, and the upset.

Clemson vs Texas Pick:

• Clemson +13.5 (-110)

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Updated Clemson vs Texas Odds

The point spread has seen significant movement since opening at Texas -11. Heavy action on the Longhorns quickly pushed it to -12.5 and now -13.5 at most books. But I believe the value now lies with Clemson as a two-touchdown underdog.

The Longhorns’ moneyline price is a steep -650, while Clemson checks in at +425. The Tigers have just a 19% predicted win probability, while UT’s implied win probability is 86.7%.

The total opened at 53.5 before under money drove it down to the current number of 49.5. Both of these defenses are legit, ranking in the top 10 nationally in several key categories.

Clemson vs Texas Betting Trends

Here are some notable betting trends and nuggets to consider before placing your Clemson-Texas wagers:

• Clemson is 6-6 ATS this season but 13-12 ATS as an underdog under Swinney
• Texas is 7-6 ATS on the year, including 4-3 ATS at home and only 2-4 as a double-digit favorite vs Power 4 teams
• The underdog is 6-2 ATS in the last 8 CFP quarterfinal/semifinal games, with dogs of 10+ points going 5-1 ATS
• Clemson is 6-4 straight up in CFP games all-time, winning titles in 2016 and 2018
• The under is 8-4-1 in Texas games this year and 6-2 in Clemson’s last 8 overall

Clemson’s track record as a playoff underdog, Klubnik’s dynamic playmaking, and the Tigers’ opportunistic defense give them multiple pathways to covering this inflated spread. Back the Tigers +13.5 as the smart play in this CFP showdown.