Duke vs Ole Miss Prediction, Odds & Opt-Outs – Gator Bowl (Thursday, Jan. 2)

• Check out our Duke vs Ole Miss prediction for the 2025 Gator Bowl
• The Rebels are heavily favored over the Blue Devils in this SEC vs ACC clash
• Read below for Duke vs Ole Miss odds, prediction and best bets for Thursday

College football bowl season rolls on Thursday night with the TaxSlayer Gator Bowl. This matchup between the Duke Blue Devils and the 14th-ranked Ole Miss Rebels is the lone Thursday night non-playoff bowl game.

Both teams enter the contest with identical 9-3 records, but the betting odds heavily favor Ole Miss. The stage for a fascinating battle at EverBank Stadium in Jacksonville, Florida, with kickoff set for 8:00 PM ET on ESPN.

This game holds special significance for Ole Miss star quarterback Jaxson Dart, as it marks his final collegiate appearance before heading to the NFL. Will that added element help Lane Kiffin’s team dominate Duke’s elite defense?

Here is a look at our Ole Miss vs Duke prediction for the Gator Bowl.

Duke vs Ole Miss Odds

The oddsmakers are giving plenty of respect to Ole Miss, with the Rebels installed as 17-point favorites. The over/under is set at 50.5 points, suggesting a potential high-scoring affair. ESPN Analytics gives Ole Miss an 83.5% win probability, underscoring their perceived dominance.

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Interestingly, the spread has seen significant movement leading up to the game, inflating from 14 to 17 points in favor of Ole Miss. This shift may be influenced by the Rebels’ impressive resume, which includes wins over Georgia and Arkansas.

At the current odds, a $100 bet on Duke would yield a $600 profit if they pull off the upset, while a bettor would need to wager $900 on Ole Miss to win $100.

Blue Devils Betting Analysis

Duke enters the Gator Bowl on a high note, having won three consecutive games before narrow losses to Miami and SMU. Despite their momentum, Manny Diaz’s squad finds themselves as heavy underdogs in the CFP bowl game odds.

The Blue Devils’ success this season can be attributed to their balanced offense, led by quarterback Maalik Murphy (2,933 yards, 26 TD, 12 INT), running back Star Thomas (871 yards, 7 TD), and receiver J. Moore (798 yards, 7 TD).

Former Duke QB Maalik Murphy has transferred to Oregon State, per @PeteThamel pic.twitter.com/IJgYuOTJZY

— PFF College (@PFF_College) December 19, 2024

However, Duke will be without Murphy and backup QB Grayson Loftis, both of whom entered the transfer portal. This leaves talented but inexperienced Henry Belin IV, who has attempted just one pass all season, as the likely starter. The absence of a proven QB could hinder Duke’s ability to keep pace with Ole Miss’s high-powered offense.

Despite this setback, Duke’s defense remains a strength, ranking 17th in the FBS in yards per play allowed (4.7) and 25th in rushing defense (3.9 yards per carry). If the Blue Devils can slow down Ole Miss’s attack and control the clock with their ground game, they have a chance to cover the sizeable spread.

Rebels Betting Analysis

Ole Miss brings one of college football’s most electric offenses to Jacksonville, averaging 34.0 points per game (15th in FBS). That’s a huge reason oddsmakers are forecasting them to show out in the Gator Bowl odds.

Quarterback Jaxson Dart has been the catalyst, throwing for 3,875 yards, 25 touchdowns, and just six interceptions. His favorite target, receiver Tre Harris (1,030 yards, 7 TD), is expected to play despite dealing with a groin injury late in the season.

#OleMiss QB Jaxson Dart is officially entering the 2025 NFL Draft, but will still play in the teams bowl game on Jan. 2nd. He has thrown for 3,875 passing yards, 25 TDs and 6 INTs this season.pic.twitter.com/57FZCJSUd3

— Jordan Reid (@Jordan_Reid) December 27, 2024

While the Rebels’ offense garners most of the attention, their defense has been equally impressive, allowing just 15.2 points per game (4th in FBS). However, Ole Miss will be without starting cornerback Jadon Canady and linebacker Chris Paul Jr., both of whom opted out of the bowl game.

Despite their overall success, Ole Miss has struggled to cover large spreads this season, going 0-3 ATS as double-digit favorites against Oklahoma, Florida, and Mississippi State. Additionally, head coach Lane Kiffin’s bowl record at Ole Miss is just 2-2, adding another layer of uncertainty for bettors.

Duke vs Ole Miss Prediction

While Ole Miss is undoubtedly the more talented team, the 17-point spread feels inflated given their recent struggles as heavy favorites and Duke’s defensive prowess. The Blue Devils have thrived as underdogs this season, going 5-1-1 ATS when receiving points.

Taking on Ole Miss 👀 pic.twitter.com/6KQQd0EH1T

— Duke Football (@DukeFOOTBALL) December 8, 2024

The absence of Duke’s starting quarterback is concerning, but if the Blue Devils can establish their running game and control the clock, they have a chance to keep this contest closer than the oddsmakers expect. On the other hand, Ole Miss’s offensive firepower could prove too much for Duke to handle, especially if Dart and his receivers are clicking early.

When the dust settles, the value lies with Duke at +17, as the spread is an overreaction to the Blue Devils’ quarterback situation. We could be in for a low-scoring, defensive battle, making the under (50.5) an appealing option for your SGP.

Gator Bowl Pick: Duke +17

Betting Trends:

• Duke is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games.
• The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Ole Miss’s last 11 games.
• Duke is 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games as an underdog.
• Ole Miss is 0-3 ATS in their last 3 games as a double-digit favorite.