Cal vs Wake Forest Odds, Spread & Prediction (Friday, Nov. 8)
By Chris Amberley in College Football
Published:
- Cal is a 7-point road favorite over Wake Forest in Week 11 College Football action on Friday, November 8
- The Golden Bears lead the ACC in scoring defense and rank second in yards allowed
- Check out the latest Cal vs Wake Forest odds, spread and prediction below
The Friday night lights shine on the ACC in Week 11 as Cal (4-4, 0-4 ACC) visits Wake Forest (4-4, 2-2 ACC). Both programs need a couple more wins to become Bowl eligible, and the College Football odds suggest the Golden Bears will move one step closer following this matchup.
California vs Wake Forest Odds
| Teams | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| California Golden Bears | -7 (-110) | -250 | O 54.5 (-115) |
| Wake Forest Demon Deacons | +7 (-110) | +222 | U 54.5 (-105) |
Cal is favored by 7-points, in a contest with a total of 54.5. The spread tickets are split virtually down the middle, but there’s a big discrepancy when it comes to the handle. 77% of the spread money is on the Golden Bears as touchdown favorites per the College Football public betting trends.
That suggests sharp action is backing Cal, and if that trend continues, we could see this line cross the key number of 7.
Kickoff is set for 8 pm ET at Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium, in Winston-Salem, NC, with the ACC Network providing the coverage.
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Odds as of November 7 at 7:30 pm ET. Be sure to check out the best Caesars Sportsbook promos before placing a bet on any Week 11 College Football matchup.
Cal is Undervalued
Neither one of these teams is a factor in the College Football Playoff odds, but it’s not far-fetched to think Cal could have been fighting for an ACC title if a few bounces had gone their way.
The Golden Bears are undefeated in non-conference play, but winless versus ACC foes. They’ve lost four times by a combined total of 9 points, giving #4 Miami and #18 Pittsburgh all they could handle.
They check in at number 36 in the SP+ rankings, a full 38 spots higher than the Demon Deacons. Cal has held six of its eight opponents to 15 points or less (including Pitt), while the lone team to exceed 24 points against them was the Hurricanes and their top-ranked offense.
The Golden Bears lead the ACC in scoring defense and yards allowed. They’re holding enemy QBs to 221 yards per outing, and opposing rushing attacks to 3.2 yards per carry. No conference team is forcing as many turnovers, while only Georgia Tech is yielding fewer first downs.
That spells trouble for Wake Forest, who have struggled mightily against good defenses. The Demon Deacons average 27 points per game, but that number craters versus quality opposition.
Wake Forest versus Top-45 SP+ Teams
| Opponent | Result | Total Yards | Turnovers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ole Miss | L 40-6 | 311 | 2 |
| Clemson | L 49-14 | 233 | 2 |
They’ve faced two teams ranked inside the top-45 per SP+, and were held to 20 total points. Wake Forest was outscored by 69 points in those two outings, failing to cover by 13 and 14 points, respectively.
Wake Forest is Vulnerable on Defense
On the other side of the ball, the Demon Deacons are vulnerable. They’re allowing 31 points per game, second worst in the ACC. Clemson, Ole Miss and Louisiana-Monroe all hung 40+ points on them, exposing their horrific pass defense.
Wake Forest is surrendering a 71% completion rate, one of the worst marks nationwide. Opposing QBs are averaging north of 300 yards per outing, and are rarely exposed to pressure. The Demon Deacons have a 2.4% sack rate, which ranks 131st in the country.
That means wheels up for Cal QB Fernando Mendoza, who’s coming off a season-best performance. Mendoza threw for 364 yards and 2 TDs in a 44-7 rout of Oregon State. He completed 75% of his passes, but more importantly, he didn’t take a sack.
POV: you check the stats and realize your QB is just different.
364 yards passing ✅
15 yards recieving ✅
A Tuddy ✅ pic.twitter.com/tmSghW91Vj— ACC Football (@ACCFootball) October 28, 2024
The Golden Bears have struggled with protection all season, as evident by Mendoza’s 28 sacks, but they corrected some issues on the offensive line last week and now get to face Wake’s anemic pass rush.
Cal vs Wake Forest Prediction
If Mendoza has time to throw, he’ll carve this Demon Deacons defense up. The Cal QB already owns one of the top-15 completion rates in the country, and averages 8 yards per throw. He also takes care of the ball with just a 1.23% INT rate, and has passed for at least 272 yards in five straight contests.
The majority of the money is on this Cal team, and you should be as well. They grade out significantly higher than Wake Forest, and have played a much tougher schedule.
The Golden Bears have covered in five of their last seven contests, including both times as a 7+ point favorite.
- Cal -7 (-110)
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Sports Writer
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
