Undefeated Baylor Laying 17.5 Points vs West Virginia in Week 10 – Picks & Odds

• Baylor is unbeaten and has the 11th-best odds to reach the College Football Playoff
• West Virginia has won three-straight against the Bears, including a 58-14 win last season
• This is the fifth year in a row that Baylor vs West Virginia features a double-digit point spread

When Baylor and West Virginia get together on the gridiron, they epitomize Big 12 football: fast pace, lots of action, and plenty of points. Expect more of the same when they clash this Thursday (Oct. 31, 8:00 PM ET) at McLane Stadium in Waco, although the vast majority of the points may be coming from one side, as the unbeaten Bears opened as 17.5-point favorites in the WVU vs Baylor odds.

Odds taken October 28th.

This matchup is only as old as West Virginia’s membership in the Big 12, which goes back to 2012. In that time, the Mountaineers have won five of seven games against the Bears. But now Baylor is on the upswing, and oddsmakers expect them to respond this year in a big way.

Quarterback Continuity

College football has tons of roster turnover from year to year, which is simply a product of the four-year amateur system. There is no bigger loss to a team than losing its quarterback (via the NFL draft, graduation, etc.) and that’s something West Virginia is learning the hard way.

In 2017 and 2018, West Virginia’s Will Grier averaged over 330 yards and three touchdowns per game. He also torched the Bears, winning both matchups in the process. This year, the Mountaineers are led by quarterback Austin Kendall who, in seven games, has compiled 330 passing yards and three touchdowns only once.

With the game on the line Will Grier lead West Virginia to a crazy win over Texas! pic.twitter.com/8BFflMRlWJ

— Athlete Swag (@AthleteSwag) November 4, 2018

That’s a stark change, while Baylor has maintained quarterback continuity. Charlie Brewer, in his third season with the Bears, is humming along with 18 total touchdowns and just three interceptions in what is shaping up to be his best season at the helm.

Not Keeping It Close

The Mountaineers have struggled as underdogs this year — not just to win, but to keep things close. In fact, West Virginia (3-4) has failed to cover in all four of its losses this year. That includes their most recent game, a 52-14 loss to Oklahoma on Oct. 19 in which the Mountaineers were getting 33 points.

Jalen Hurts had five times as many TDs as incompletions. That seems good.

Recap ➡️ https://t.co/nLC1luJ1vb pic.twitter.com/IyV1NGOUdF

— Oklahoma Football (@OU_Football) October 19, 2019

Baylor is 4-3 against the spread and has struggled to cover when listed as the heavy favorite. The Bears are 1-3 ATS when listed as a double-digit favorite, most recently failing to cover against Texas Tech (Baylor won 33-30, but the spread was -10.5).

Playoff Implications

It never hurts to have something at stake — a little extra incentive to pile on and show out might help Baylor in this one. The Bears’ current Four-Team Playoff Odds list them 11th in the nation, at +1000.

Most interesting playoff “what if” right now…

What if LSU beats Bama close w/o Tua.
Bama = non-champ w/1 good win (Aub)
Baylor, Clemson, LSU, B1G champ all undefeated.

Does Bama get in?

— 💫🅰️♈️🆔 (@ADavidHaleJoint) October 28, 2019

Every win matters for the 7-0 team, but it’s about more than that. They need to win with flare and conviction in order to show voters they belong in the exclusive semifinal playoff at year’s end.

Their last game, against Oklahoma State, was an example of that. Baylor was only ahead by four with eight minutes to go, but some big plays on defense helped them light up the scoreboard and finish with a convincing 45-27 win.

Bears get it done on the road. 💪😤#SicEm pic.twitter.com/aFUcZoVIPw

— Baylor Football (@BUFootball) October 20, 2019

Decision Time

Baylor should be a no-brainer pick on the moneyline, but their recent struggles as heavy favorites makes their ATS outlook a bit murky.

This game has a good chance to hit the over (57.0) as four of West Virginia’s past five games have gone over and Baylor is scoring nearly 40 points per game.

Picks: Baylor moneyline (-900); over 57.0