Alabama vs LSU Betting Line & Prediction 2024

• #11 Alabama is a 3-point road favorite over #14 LSU in Week 11 College Football action on Saturday, November 9
• Tiger QB Garrett Nussmeier has thrown seven interceptions in his last four starts
• Check out the Alabama vs LSU early betting line and prediction below

The biggest game on Saturday’s College Football slate is a loser-leaves-town match as #11 Alabama (6-2, 3-2 SEC) visits #14 LSU (6-2, 3-1 SEC), with each team clinging to playoff hopes. The loser will be eliminated from the College Football Playoff bracket conversation, and online sportsbooks believe it will be the Tigers who fall short per the latest college football odds.

Alabama vs LSU Odds

The Crimson Tide opened as 2.5-point favorites before getting bet up to -3. The spread tickets are split nearly 50/50 as of Monday morning, but the money tells a different story: 81% of the handle is on Alabama in the college football public betting splits, and typically when there’s that large a discrepancy between the ticket count and the money, it signals sharp action. 

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Total-wise, the over/under has held firm at its 58.5-point opening line. The action is heavily slanted towards the under, with 84% of the bets and 94% of the early money backing that side.

Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30 pm ET at LSU’s Tiger Stadium, in Baton Rouge, LA, with ABC and ESPN+ providing the coverage.

LSU’s Fatal Flaws

Saturday will mark the first time since 2006 that neither of these SEC rivals have been ranked inside the top-10 for their matchup. Both enter play with two losses on their resume, but Alabama’s quality of wins are greater, hence the higher ranking. The Tide’s victory over Georgia remains one of the best wins of any team, while they also blanked #21 Missouri 34-0 last time out.

Alabama & LSU is setting up to be a massive game😳

Winner: Will most likely make the 12 team playoff (assuming a win out)
Loser: Eliminated from the 12 Team CFP.

Both teams have a bye week next week. pic.twitter.com/1bwfzsI3yY

— College Football Report (@CFBRep) October 27, 2024

The victory over Mizzou perhaps signaled a potential turnaround for the Tide’s season. Jalen Milroe, a one-time Heisman Trophy odds candidate, was sharp through the air and on the ground, while the defense dominated.

Alabama held Missouri to 3.0 yards per pass, while forcing three turnovers. The pass defense will be tested early and often against the Tigers, who throw at the nation’s fifth highest rate.

QB Garrett Nussmeier has passed for 2,647 and 20 TD, but has also been turnover prone. He’s been picked off nine times already, including seven interceptions in his last four starts. A big game from Nussmeier will be imperative because LSU can’t run the football. They rank below average in nearly every rushing metric, and are fresh off a loss to #15 Texas A&M, where their leading rusher produced just 23 yards.

Stopping the run is an even bigger problem for the Tigers, especially the read option. The Aggies brought in dual-threat QB Marcel Reed after falling behind versus LSU, and he torched them. Reed rushed for 62 yards and 3 TD in the second half, propelling A&M to a 38-23 victory. The Tigers coughed up 245 yards on the ground, and ‘Bama and Milroe can absolutely replicate that formula.

Alabama vs LSU Prediction

LSU’s defense of the read option was so bad versus the Aggies that head coach Brian Kelly suggested future opponents should attack them the exact same way. Obviously, they’ll have a plan to hopefully improve in that area, but Alabama can also expose them through the air.

The Tigers are allowing enemy QB’s to complete 62% of their passes, at 8 yards per clip. The Crimson Tide owns one of the most explosive offenses in the country, and can break a long play at any given moment.

Alabama vs LSU – Last 5 Matchups

On the other side of the ball, Nussmeier’s turnover woes are problematic, as is his performance under pressure. His completion rate with the heat on drops to 39%, and he averages only 5.8 yards per throw. Five of his nine picks have come under duress, against only one touchdown.

The Alabama pass rush isn’t elite, but it can still cause problems. They rank 22nd nationwide in pass rush productivity per Pro Football Focus, and their defense is forcing interceptions at the 17th highest rate.

With the amount of money already coming in on the Tide we could see this line move further in their direction. If you like ‘Bama in this spot, act now.

• Pick: Alabama -3 (-110)