Xavier vs Illinois Odds & Betting Lines – Illini Open as Favorites

• The #11 Xavier Musketeers will face the #6 Illinois Fighting Illini in the first round of March Madness
• After disposing of Texas in the First Four, Xavier has opened as a slight underdog
• Below, see the full slate of Xavier vs Illinois odds and line-movement predictions

The #11 Xavier Musketeers (22-11, 13-7 Big East, 18-14 ATS) survived a stiff test from Texas in the First Four on Wednesday night to set up a clash with the #6 Illinois Fighting Illini (21-12, 12-8 Big Ten, 16-17 ATS) in the round of 64 at the 2025 NCAA Tournament. Xavier and Illinois will meet on Friday night at at 9:45 pm ET at Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee. The opening Xavier vs Illinois betting lines list the better-seeded Illini as modest favorites.

Xavier vs Illinois Odds

The opening Xavier vs Illinois odds set the Illini as 2.5-point chalk and -155 on the moneyline, which amounts to a 60.78% win probability. The Musketeers come back as +130 underdogs, which carries a 43.48% win probability. The game total has opened at a relatively high 156.5.

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Xavier clawed back from multiple double-digit deficits to eke out an 86-80 win over Texas in the First Four on Wednesday night in Dayton. The comeback win was thanks to some unlikely sources; former Furman guard Marcus Foster (7.6 PPG, 4.8 RPG, 2.0 APG) had a team-high 22 points while Dante Maddox (7.2 PPG, 2.4 RPG) added 10 off the bench.

Leading scorer Zach Freemantle (17.3 PPG, 7.1 RPG, 2.1 APG) came up big late, but finished with just 15 points, two rebounds, and two assists. Second-leading scorer Ryan Conwell (16.8 PPG, 2.8 RPG, 2.5 APG) had just 11.

Xavier had finished the regular season on a roll, winning seven in a row, including an 83-61 demolition of eventual Big East Tournament-champion Creighton. But the Musketeers couldn’t parlay that win streak into any success in the Big East tourney, falling to Marquette (89-87) in their first game.

XAV vs ILL Ratings Comparison

Xavier’s ratings are from prior to the First Four win over Texas and are likely to shift slightly in the hours to come.

Illinois enters the tournament after a respectable 12-8 campaign in Big Ten play. While the SEC rated as the best conference this year, Illinois played the seventh-toughest schedule in the country, toughest in the Big Ten and second-hardest of any team not in the SEC.

The Illini finished the year fairly strong, with four straight quality wins against Iowa (81-61 home), Michigan (93-73 away), Purdue (88-80) home), and Iowa again in the Big Ten Tournament’s second round (106-94). But in the quarterfinals, Illinois fell to Maryland (86-65) in one of the team’s worst performances of the season.

Illinois is led in scoring by a likely one-and-done freshman, 6’6 Lithuanian guard Kasparas Jakucionis (15.0 PPG, 5.6 RPG, 4.6 APG), who projects as a lottery pick in most 2025 NBA mock drafts. But he’s just one of five players averaging in double-figures for the run-and-gun Illini, who play at the 18th-fastest tempo in DI and average the 12th-most points per game (83.8).

The more methodical Longhorns average 78.4 PPG while holding opponents to 72.2. Illinois surrenders 74.6 PPG.

Projected Xavier vs Illinois Line Movement

Xavier not only looked scrappy in its comeback win against the Longhorns, they were one of the hotter teams in the country before falling by a bucket to Marquette in the Big East Tournament.

Illinois, of course, cuts a similar silhouette: the Illini were streaking into the Big Ten Tournament but didn’t even reach the semis.

The KenPom score projection for Xavier vs Illinois is an 82-77 Illini victory. If this line is going to move, it’s going to head the Illinois way. The total may also tick up a point, but the opening total of 156.5, which is 2.5 points lower than the KenPom total, is basically par for the course this year.

Bookmark SBD’s March Madness betting splits to see how the public is betting all 67 games of the 2025 NCAA Tournament.

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