Wake Forest vs Duke Predictions, Lines & Picks (Monday, Mar. 3)
By Chris Amberley in College Basketball
Published:
- The #2 Duke Blue Devils are 19.5-point home favorites over Wake Forest on Monday night
- Duke earned a 63-56 victory in their first meeting back in January
- See the Wake Forest vs Duke odds, lines and predictions for tonight’s matchup
The #2 Duke Blue Devils’ (26-3, 17-1 ACC) pursuit of the ACC regular-season title continues on Monday, as they host the Wake Forest Demon Deacons (20-9, 12-6 ACC). Both these teams are exceptionally strong defensively, and online sportsbooks are expecting a low scoring game in the latest college basketball odds.
Tip-off for this matchup is set for 7pm ET at the Cameron Indoor Stadium, in Durham, NC, with ESPN providing the broadcast coverage.
Wake Forest vs Duke Prediction
Much like the books, I see little chance of this game turning into a shootout. The Blue Devils enter play as a top-two contender in the March Madness odds, and rank fourth nationally in defensive rating. They’ve held 11 of their last 13 opponents below 68 points, including the Demon Deacons when they met back in January.
Wake Forest gave Cooper Flagg and Duke a scare, but ultimately the Blue Devils prevailed 63-56. The Demon Deacons held Duke to a 36.8% field goal percentage though, one of their lowest marks of the season.
Speaking of Flagg, the phenom and Wooden Award odds favorite, had to leave the Blue Devils’ blowout victory over Florida State on Saturday due to an eye injury. Fortunately for Flagg, it ended up being just a bruised eyelid. Flagg, ultimately returned to the game, finishing with 16 points, and was praised for his toughness by teammates afterwards.
Duke cannot afford any more injuries, as the team is already without Tyrese Proctor. The Blue Devils starting point guard is out indefinitely with a knee injury, but is expected to return soon.
Back to the Wake Forest defense, that ranks 45th in defensive rating. They’re 32nd at defending the perimeter, allowing a three-point success rate of only 30.8%. That spells trouble for Duke, who despite ranking second in offensive rating, settle far too often for jump shots. They don’t attack the rim, and as a result don’t earn trips to the free throw line. The Blue Devils are 180th in the country in free throw attempts.
That style of play relies a ton on efficiency, and while Duke is capable of being ultra efficient, it can go sideways. If the shots aren’t falling, it can totally disrupt the offensive flow, leading to turnovers. That’s what happened in their first matchup, as the Blue Devils had 16 turnovers, seven more than their season average.
As for the Demon Deacons offense, don’t expect a ceiling performance versus Duke. Wake Forest is 137th nationally in offensive rating, and runs the bulk of their offense inside the arc. The Blue Devils are on the top teams defending that area, ranking third in opponent two-point field goal percentage.
Wake Forest vs Duke Pick
- Under 143.5 (-110) at DraftKings
Duke is holding enemy shooters to the second lowest effective field goal percentage, and are seventh in defensive rebounding. The Demon Deacons have struggled to score against Quad 1 opposition, especially those ranked in the top-30. They’ve faced six such opponents, averaging a measly 58 points per contest. I’m predicting more offensive struggles tonight, making the under my best bet.
Wake Forest vs Duke Lines
The total in the Wake Forest vs Duke odds is currently listed at 143.5. The Blue Devils are favored by 19.5-points, and are a -4500 moneyline favorite. Duke has seen five straight games soar over the total, while the Demon Deacons have been a favorite among under bettors.
Odds as of March 2 at DraftKings. See the full list of DraftKings deposit methods.
Per the college basketball public betting trends, the under is 7-5 in their last 12 games. That side of the total is 17-12 in Wake Forest contests this season, hitting at an 80% rate versus ranked opponents.
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Sports Writer
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
