Vanderbilt vs Saint Mary’s Predictions, Picks & Odds for March Madness

• The #7 seed Saint Mary’s Gaels are 4.5-point favorites over the #10 seed Vanderbilt Commodores in this East Region 1st Round matchup
• Vanderbilt has a slightly better offense, while Saint Mary’s boasts an elite defense, setting up an intriguing clash of styles
• See my Vanderbilt vs Saint Mary’s predictions, picks and odds for Friday, March 21, below

The 2025 NCAA Tournament continues with a must-watch 7 vs 10 matchup in the East Region between the Saint Mary’s Gaels (28-5) and Vanderbilt Commodores (20-12) on March 21.

The Gaels are laying 4.5 points, but I’ve got plenty of reasons to back the underdog Dores in this spot. Tipoff is set for 3:15pm ET on Friday at Rocket Arena in Cleveland, with truTV handling the broadcast duties.

Vanderbilt vs Saint Mary’s Predictions (East Region 1st Round)

My prediction is that Vanderbilt keeps this game much closer than the spread indicates. The Commodores have a top-30 offense that could give the Gaels some trouble, especially if sharpshooting wing Tyler Nickel gets hot from deep.

Meanwhile, Saint Mary’s plays at a snail’s pace that naturally shortens games and limits possessions. That style tends to keep games closer, even against teams they might be better than on paper.

Let’s break down the matchup. Saint Mary’s defense is no joke, ranking 8th in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency. They’re absolute bullies defending the paint, sitting 12th nationally in 2-point percentage allowed (45.8%).

But here’s the thing – the Gaels are just so-so at limiting threes, ranking 92nd. That plays right into Vanderbilt’s hands, as the Dores love to let it fly from deep, taking over 40% of their shots from behind the arc.

Vanderbilt vs Saint Mary’s KenPom Comparison

On the offensive end, Vanderbilt ranks 30th in KenPom compared to 56th for Saint Mary’s. The Dores are powered by versatile guard Jason Walker (17 ppg), and they play at a much faster clip than the Gaels (64th vs 359th). So while Saint Mary’s wants to grind it out, Vandy will be looking to push the pace and get buckets in transition whenever possible.

Sure, there will be some blowouts in the March Madness bracket, but I don’t believe this game is one of them. My numbers say the true spread should be around 3 points, not the 4.5 we’re seeing. That means there’s some small value on Vanderbilt.

The Commodores have also been money in this spot historically, going 6-2 ATS in their last eight against WCC opponents.

When you step back and look at the bigger picture, a few other trends point to a dogfight. Saint Mary’s is just 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall and a rough 3-10 ATS in non-conference games. Meanwhile, Vanderbilt is 6-1 in their last seven Friday games.

Vanderbilt vs Saint Mary’s Picks

• Vanderbilt +4.5 (-105) at DraftKings

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I’m rolling with the Commodores to cover this spread in a nail-biter of a 1st Round battle. I just don’t see Saint Mary’s pulling away, as their molasses-slow pace and Vandy’s potent offense should keep things tight throughout. Grab those 4.5 points at -105 odds while they’re still available.

Another factor working in Vanderbilt’s favor is their experience against high-level competition. The Commodores navigated the gauntlet of the SEC, which sent a record 14 teams to the Big Dance this year. That battle-tested mentality should serve them well against a Saint Mary’s squad that largely feasted on the weaker West Coast Conference.

The Gaels went just 3-10 ATS in non-conference games, so they may be in for a rude awakening against a battle-tested and undervalued Vandy squad.

Vanderbilt vs Saint Mary’s Odds

The best moneyline price on Vanderbilt is +160 at DraftKings, while Saint Mary’s is -190 to win straight up.

The total sits at a modest 135.5 points, which makes sense given the Gaels’ glacial pace. That said, don’t hesitate to bet the over, as it’s cashed in four of the Dores’ last five games.

Odds as of March 21, 2025, at DraftKings Sportsbook. Learn how to bet on March Madness before placing a wager.

Game Info

• East Region, 1st Round
• Vanderbilt (20-12) vs Saint Mary’s (28-5)
• March 21, 2025 (Friday) | 3:15pm ET
• Rocket Arena – Cleveland, OH
• Watch on truTV