Huge Changes in 2020 March Madness Odds: Duke, Gonzaga, Virginia Tumble, while Memphis & Kansas Climb
By Sascha Paruk in College Basketball
Updated: April 6, 2020 at 3:35 pm EDTPublished:
- The dust has settled after NBA draft and transfer decisions, leaving the landscape for 2019-20 NCAAM season much clearer
- Oddsmakers have taken a fresh look and the 2020 March Madness futures have been drastically revised
- See which teams have risen and fallen the most at which online sportsbook
Final NBA draft and transfer decisions have been made and now the rosters for the 2019-20 college basketball season are all but set. That’s allowed oddsmakers to take a fresh look at the 2020 March Madness odds, and they have shifted those odds significantly.
Twelve teams, in particular, took big jumps, six for the better, six for the worse.
The first table below outlines the six teams now deemed stronger National Championship contenders. The second outlines the half-dozen that look more like also-rans, according to the oddsmakers. The fourth column in both tables lists the implied probability of each team’s updated odds, with the difference compared to their former odds in parentheses.
Biggest March Madness Odds Changes: The Risers
*Schools listed in alphabetical order.
| Team | Odds on Jun. 14 | Odds on Jun. 28 | Implied Probability Change | Sportsbook |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Florida Gators | +3500 | +2600 | 3.7% (+0.9%) | Sportsbook 1 |
| Florida St Seminoles | +6600 | +4000 | 2.4% (+0.9%) | Sportsbook 2 |
| Kansas Jayhawks | +1600 | +800 | 11.1% (+5.2%) | Sportsbook 3 |
| Louisville Cardinals | +2500 | +1600 | 5.9% (+2.1%) | Sportsbook 3 |
| Maryland Terrapins | +5000 | +1600 | 5.9% (+3.9%) | Sportsbook 3 |
| Memphis Tigers | +2500 | +1300 | 7.1% (+3.3%) | Sportsbook 2 |
| Ohio State Buckeyes | +5000 | +3300 | 2.9% (+0.9%) | Sportsbook 3 |
Florida jumps up largely because Mike White landed coveted Virginia Tech transfer Kerry Blackshear.
After Silvio De Sousa was ruled eligible for Kansas, the Jayhawks continued on an upward trajectory by signing freshman Jalen Watson and getting Iowa transfer Isaiah Moss, a 42.1% three-point shooter who immediately becomes Bill Self’s best perimeter weapon.
The Terps will have Anthony Cowen and Jalen Smith back, plus added a potential impact freshman in Chol Marial. But sportsbook 3 is by far the most optimistic on this team. They are still +3500 at sportsbook 1 and +6000 at sportsbook 3.
With Jordan Nwora withdrawing from the NBA draft, Louisville’s 2019-20 roster returns 67% of minutes, 76% of points, 80% of rebounds, 51% of assists, 71% of steals, and 89% of blocks from last season. https://t.co/g4PgsITayW
— Kelly Dickey (@RealCardGame) May 30, 2019
Jordan Nwora’s return to Lexington is mostly responsible for the Cardinals’ gains.
Biggest March Madness Odds Changes: The Fallers
*Schools listed in alphabetical order.
| Team | Odds on Jun. 14 | Odds on Jun. 28 | Implied Probability (Change) | Sportsbook |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duke Blue Devils | +600 | +900 | 10% (-4.3%) | Sportsbook 2 |
| Gonzaga Bulldogs | +1400 | +2000 | 4.8% (-1.9%) | Sportsbook 3 |
| Marquette Golden Eagles | +2500 | +6600 | 1.5% (-2.3%) | Sportsbook 3 |
| Michigan Wolverines | +1400 | +4000 | 2.2% (-4.3%) | Sportsbook 3 |
| Texas Longhorns | +4500 | +6600 | 1.5% (-0.7%) | Sportsbook 1 |
| Virginia Cavaliers | +800 | +1600 | 5.9% (-5.2%) | Sportsbook 3 |
| Washington Huskies | +3300 | +9000 | 1.1% (-1.8%) | Sportsbook 3 |
Duke’s fall at sportsbook 2 isn’t precipitated by anything in particular. It’s just a correction to the Blue Devils being overvalued at their former +600 price.
The same can be said for Gonzaga. Mark Few is losing all the players he expected to lose (Brandon Clarke, Rui Hachimura, Zach Norvell) and getting back all the players he expected to get back (Killian Tillie, Colin Kispert, Joel Ajayi) plus A&M transfer Admon Gilder.
Why is Jon Beilein’s consistent Michigan program falling? Because it’s not Jon Beilein’s program anymore.
Marquette’s precipitous drop at sportsbook 3 is due to the team losing the Houser twins to the transfer market. While that happened weeks ago, sportsbooks are always slower to move prices in the bettor’s direction.
Why is Jon Beilein’s consistent Michigan program falling? Because it’s not Jon Beilein’s program anymore. For those that have been asleep at the NCAA wheel, the legendary coach is now the head man with the Cleveland Cavaliers, while Juwan Howard takes over in Ann Arbor.
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Managing Editor
Sascha has been working in the sports-betting industry since 2014, and quickly paired his strong writing skills with a burgeoning knowledge of probability and statistics. He holds an undergraduate degree in linguistics and a Juris Doctor from the University of British Columbia.
