Troy vs Kentucky Odds, Picks, Props & Betting Splits

• The 3rd-seeded Kentucky Wildcats are 11.5-point favorites over the Troy Trojans in Round 1 NCAA Tournament play
• The Trojans have won six games in a row
• See the Troy vs Kentucky odds, player props, and predictions for March 21

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Bounced as a 3-seed in the opening round of the NCAA Tournament a year ago, the Kentucky Wildcats (22-11, 16-16-1 ATS) try to avoid a similar fate this year as a #3, when they take on the 14th-seeded Troy Trojans (23-10, 20-11-0 ATS), the reigning Sun Belt Conference Champion.

This matchup in the Midwest Region tips off on Friday at 7:10pm ET from Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, WI with CBS providing the broadcast coverage.

Check below for the Troy vs Kentucky odds, player props plus my betting prediction.

Troy vs Kentucky Public Betting Splits

The March Madness public betting splits show the public is backing the blue-blooded Wildcats the underdog. Kentucky is getting 57% of the bets for covering the spread, with 73% of the money.

On the moneyline, only 7% of wagers are on Troy to upset UK but they account for 58% of moneyline handle.

The game-total betting splits slightly favor the over, with 55% of the bets and 64% of the money on the teams going over the total of 151.5.

Troy vs Kentucky Odds

The Trojans enter as a distant 11.5-point underdog in the college basketball odds, and a distant +525 on the moneyline. The total comes in at 151.5 points.

Odds as of March 21 at DraftKings. Read SBD’s guide to the March Madness betting strategy.

The Wildcats’ last game was a 99-70 loss to the Alabama Crimson Tide in the quarterfinals of the SEC Tournament.

That gives them four losses over their last nine games, but contect matters. Three of those L’s were against Top 5-ranked teams: Alabama (twice) and Auburn, who was ranked first at the time.

Troy is coming off a big 94-81 win over Arkansas State in the Sun Belt Conference Tournament final, to punch their ticket into March Madness.

In their prior five wins along this six-game fun-run, the Trojans hadn’t let one opponent cross the 70-point plateau, keeping three teams at 60 or less.

Troy vs Kentucky Prediction

Kentucky is battle-tested, as their strength of schedule rating at KenPom is third best.

They’ve navigated through the tough SEC with an offense that can carry them most nights, averaging 85.3 points per game.

That is aided by a heavy 3-ball game. UK drilled 317 triples this year, the third-most in the program’s storied history, and they’ve drilled at least 10 moneyballs in 18 games, the most in a single season in program history.

🫵🫵🫵

📺 – SEC Network pic.twitter.com/34te15a8ty

— Kentucky Men’s Basketball (@KentuckyMBB) March 15, 2025

That helps them outscore their defensive problems, as UK owns the second-worst scoring defense in the SEC, allowing 77.9 points per game.

That should help the Trojans, who were only seventh in the Sun Belt in scoring at 73.9 points per game. Not entirely sure how much more the Wildcats’ porous D can aid them, though, as Troy shoots the 3-ball at an ugly 29.9% clip, outside the Top 340 rankings in college hoops.

Defense is the strongest part of their game, ranked inside the Top 70 at KenPom, surrendering 65.4 points per contest. But they’ll be hard pressed to contain the Wildcats, who have scored at least 78 points in 12 of their last 14 games.

That’s why I’m targeting the total, which seems gettable. The Trojans have actually gone Over the total in six of their last seven, moving past the 150-point range in back-to-back games.

The Wildcats have cashed the Over in four of the last five. Their offense and lack of defense should be enough to bring this to another Over.

• Troy vs Kentucky pick: Over 151.5 points (-115)

Troy vs Kentucky Player Props

Troy vs Kentucky player props from bet365 on Mar 21. Claim the current bet365 bonus code to get a bonus for Friday’s NCAAM slate.

Sun Belt Player of the Year Tayton Conerway has the highest scoring prop for the 14th-seeded Trojans at 16.5 points. That’s a light line worth hammering, considering the Wildcats’ defensive struggles and the fact he’s scored at least 17 points in five of the last six games.

For the Wildcats, Otega Oweh has the highest scoring total of all players at 18.5. He’s led Kentucky in scoring in three of the last four games, and he’s struck for at least 20 points in six of the last nine contests. The three times he was held in check were against Top-5 competition, so that won’t be an issue in Milwaukee.