Texas vs. South Carolina Odds, Predictions & Picks for Women’s Final Four

South Carolina (34-3, 1-3 ATS in NCAA Tournament) and Texas (35-3, 2-2) will meet for the fourth time this season on Friday night as the SEC titans clash in the Women’s Final Four. Tip-off is scheduled for 7 pm ET at Amalie Arena in Tampa, Fla. It will air on ESPN’s family of networks.

Texas vs. South Carolina Odds

The Gamecocks are looking for their third win over the Longhorns this season, and were a 4.5-point favorite at FanDuel as of Friday morning. As tip time neared, however, they moved to a 5.5-point favorite and -250 on the moneyline. Texas is now a +198 moneyline underdog. The total also shifted at FanDuel, going from 124.5 to 123.5 as two of the top three defensive teams in the country are meeting.

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Setting a line for this game likely wasn’t easy for the best online sportsbooks, as the previous three meetings produced some very different results. Both of South Carolina’s wins were blowouts (67-50 on Jan. 12 and 64-45 in the SEC Championship), while Texas came away with a tight 66-62 victory in between those two results on Feb. 9.

In that SEC Championship, South Carolina never trailed, took a 10-point lead midway through the second quarter, and just piled on from there. Texas was just 16-of-54 from the field and 1-of-8 from 3-point range. Bart Torvik rated it as the worst performance of Texas’ season. The second worst? The other loss to South Carolina.

One common factor in both of South Carolina’s wins was limiting the production of SEC Player of the Year Madison Booker. She had seven points in the first meeting and 10 in the second. In the one Texas win, she had 20 points and 11 rebounds for the Longhorns.

While Texas is much more than just Booker, she’s clearly the most important player on the team, and she’ll need to produce offensively in order for them to have a chance. She averages 16.5 points per game, and is one of just two Longhorns averaging in double figures (Taylor Jones averages 12.1).

South Carolina, meanwhile, scores in a much more balanced way. While just three players (Joyce Edwards, 12.7; MiLaysia Fulwiley, 11.9; Chloe Kitts, 10.4) are averaging in double figures, seven players average between 7.2 and 12.7 points per game. Nine Gamecocks average at least 18.9 minutes per game.

Texas vs. South Carolina Final Four Player Prop Odds

FanDuel is offering a good selection of player props ahead of Friday night’s game. Here’s a look at the points props they have available:

The number connected to Booker feels reputation inflated, especially in light of what I’ve already covered. FanDuel is giving us shorter odds on a number that’s above her season average, and against a team she’s struggled against. The under would hit if you combined her points from the two Texas losses against South Carolina.

That being said, if you like Texas to win or stay close enough to cover 4.5, pairing it with Booker’s over might not be a bad idea. She’s likely going to have to hit that in order for the Longhorns to do either of those things.

Harmon’s number is much more intriguing on the Texas side. It’s just below her average (9.3), and also an over she’s hit in both Texas losses to South Carolina. If the Gamecocks are set on slowing Booker, Harmon could see extra opportunity.

All of the numbers for South Carolina are ones I’d stay away from. Not because Kitts, Fulwiley and Edwards aren’t capable of hitting them, but because they’re all capable of it, as are about six other players. What makes the Gamecocks so good is that you don’t know who is going to go off on a given night.

Player prop picks:

• Madison Booker Under 17.5 points (-108)
• Rori Harmon Over 8.5 points (-130)

Texas vs. South Carolina Prediction and Best Bets

I liked South Carolina to win it all before the tournament started, and while UConn is now the clear and deserved favorite, that’s not a Friday problem, it’s a Sunday one.

Texas has had an incredible season, and easily dispatched its tournament opponents, including two very good teams in Tennessee and TCU. South Carolina, meanwhile, has been pushed in each of the past three rounds, and while Indiana, Maryland and Duke are very stiff competition, I’d be lying if I said it didn’t shake my confidence a little.

But not enough. South Carolina’s depth and defense are more than championship worthy, and its composure when things aren’t going to plan is next level.

I expect another fairly low-scoring game between two teams Torvik ranks Nos. 2 and 3 in defensive efficiency, but with a week to prepare and more weapons at her disposal, I can’t be against Dawn Staley.

Just a note, I made the picks below when the lines were available. I would still take South Carolina at -5.5 and the Under at 123.5, though.

Texas vs. South Carolina Picks:

• South Carolina -4.5 (-120)
• Under 124.5 (-106)

Agree with me? Think I’m off my rocker? Either way, claim the best March Madness betting promos by clicking the links below and make your bets before tipoff.