Texas Tech vs Florida Predictions & Picks for Elite Eight

• The #1 Florida Gators are 6.5-point favorites vs the #3 Texas Tech Raiders in Elite Eight NCAA Tournament play
• The winner takes the West Region and advances to the Final Four
• See the Texas Tech vs Florida odds, player props, and predictions for March 29

On Saturday, we’re going to find out how the West was won, as the top-seeded Florida Gators (33-4, 27-10-0 ATS) take on the #3 Texas Tech Red Raiders (28-8, 18-17-0 ATS). The winner claims the West Region and a berth in the Final Four of the NCAA Tournament. Action for this one tips off at 6:09 pm ET from Chase Arena in San Francisco, CA, in a game that will be broadcast by TBS.

Check below for the Texas Tech vs Florida odds, player props and my betting prediction.

Florida vs Texas Tech Odds

The third-seeded Red Raiders enter as lengthy 6.5-point underdogs in the college basketball odds, including a distant +225 on the moneyline, compared to the Gators who check in at -278. The total comes in at 155.5 points, and both these teams can put up points. The Gators have hit the Over in 10 straight, while the Red Raiders have topped the total in seven of their last eight.

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Odds as of March 28 at DraftKings. Read SBD’s guide to the March Madness betting strategy.

The Red Raiders flew as close to the sun as you could ride without burning out, overcoming a 16-point second-half deficit to beat the 10th-seeded Arkansas Razorbacks 85-83 in overtime. It’s the second-largest comeback in Sweet 16 history.

Darrion Williams clutched up big time for TTU, drilling a game-tying triple that forced overtime, then muscling up a bucket late in OT, which would be the eventual winning points. He was one of three starters to touch 20 points, with Christian Anderson leading the way with 22.

It was a lot less chaotic for the Gators, who grinded down the #4 seed Maryland Terrapins to punch their ticket to the Elite Eight.

The Gators shot 50% from the field, and a crisp 11-for-28 from 3-point range, a 39.3% clip, breaking open a 2-point game at halftime to win going away. Their defense held the Terps to 40.7% shooting, and Florida dominated the glass, earning a +22 advantage overall.

Will Richard was one of six Gators to score in double figures, leading the way with 15 points, four rebounds and three assists.

Texas Tech vs Florida Picks

Fatigue might play a factor in this matchup, as the Red Raiders are going to have to put the emotions and drama from the Sweet 16 matchup away to handle a whole other (and more intimidating) beast with just a one-day break.

All but one starter logged at least 37 minutes against Arkansas, with Elijah Hawkins playing a game-high 45 minutes and Christian Anderson right behind him at 44.

The Red Raiders only go seven deep, and Kevin Overton took most of Kerwin Walton’s minutes, logging 37 himself.

Texas Tech was third in the Big 12 in scoring at 80.9 points per game, and they might be one of the few teams that can hand with the Gators point-for-point. The Red Raiders are third in KenPom’s offensive efficiency metric, just a little below Florida.

The Gators not only bring an offense that scored 85.5 points per game — second only to Alabama, but they were tied for third in scoring defense in the SEC, allowing 69.4 points per game.

This might be the one area Florida takes a slight advantage: they’re ninth in KenPom’s defensive efficiency ranking, while the Red Raiders are 39th, the third-worst rating left standing in the tournament.

Florida might also be able to contain Texas Tech’s 3-point shooting, which was off to the tune of 8-for-32 against Arkansas. The Gators are a Top-10 team in defending the arc, holding opponents to 29.3% shooting from the field.

Florida is also looking for its 10th straight win, and only twice in those games has an opponent kept it to a single-digit decision. They’re 7-2-0 against the spread.

Tech puts up a fight, but Florida’s talent rises, especially in the second half to put their opponent away.

• Texas Tech vs Florida pick: Florida -6.5 (-105)

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Texas Tech vs Florida Public Betting Splits

The March Madness public betting splits are basically Gator country. Florida is getting a massive 90% of the bets and a fat 80% of the money on the moneyline.

The money is going hard on the Gators’ 6.5-point spread, with 92% of the money and 70% of the bets on Florida. Just 8% of the money is on Texas Tech to cover.

As for the total, the bettors aren’t messing around, with a hefty 84% of the bets and 84% of the money going on the Over count of 156.5 points.

Texas Tech vs Florida Player Props

Texas Tech vs Florida player props from bet365 on Mar 28. Claim the current bet365 bonus code to get a bonus for Saturday’s NCAAM slate.

Texas Tech’s JT Toppin has the highest scoring prop for any player in this game at 20.5 points. However, save for a 25-point outing against Drake, he’s gone Under the total in three of the last four. He also has the highest rebounding total at 10.5: Toppin has grabbed at least 11 boards in four of his last seven.

Sweet 16 hero Darrion Williams is second-highest in scoring at 15.5 points for the Red Raiders. After going six straight games going Under that number, he’s now topped it in back-to-back games.

For the Gators, Walter Clayton has the highest scoring prop at 18.5 points, a figure he’s topped in six of his last eight outings. He’s also gone over his 3.5 assist line in five of the last eight.

Will Richard’s scoring line is set at 13.5 points; he’s bested that number in back-to-back games and in five of his last six.