Tennessee vs Kentucky Predictions, Expert Picks & Odds for Feb 11

• The #5 Tennessee Volunteers are 3-point road favorites over the #15 Kentucky Wildcats tonight
• Kentucky defeated Tennessee 78-73 in their first meeting
• Check out the Tennessee vs Kentucky predictions, expert picks, and odds below

SEC powerhouses square off tonight in Kentucky, as the #15 Wildcats (16-7, 5-5 SEC) host the Tennessee Volunteers (20-4, 7-4 SEC). The Vols enter play fresh off three straight victories, and online sportsbooks expect their winning streak to continue per the college basketball odds. Tip-off for this SEC showdown is scheduled for 7:00 pm ET from Rupp Arena, in Lexington, KY, with ESPN providing the broadcast coverage.

Tennessee vs Kentucky Odds

Tennessee is currently favored by 3-points in a contest with a total of 149.5. The spread has moved 1.5 points in the Vols’ favor per the college basketball public betting trends, while the total has stood pat.

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Tennessee vs Kentucky Betting Trends

Both these teams enter play as top-11 contenders in the March Madness odds. Kentucky relies heavily on its offense for success, while Tennessee is much more balanced. The Vols have the best defensive rating per Kenpom, and are a top-33 offense. The Wildcats on the other hand, are second in offensive rating, but 90th in their own end.

These two teams met two weeks ago in Knoxville, with Kentucky prevailing 78-73. The Wildcats shot 50% from the field, and 50% from three, numbers you don’t see often versus the Tennessee defense. The Vols have held enemy shooters to a 36.2% field goal percentage this season, and a 26.6% mark from three.

Kentucky got four threes apiece from Ansley Almonor and Jaxson Robinson, and refused to alter their style of play despite the tough matchup. The Wildcats love to let it fly from deep, and get out in transition. Kentucky plays at the fastest place in the SEC, ranking top-17 in both field goal and three-point attempts nationwide.

Robinson leads the team with 61 made threes this season, but unfortunately has been ruled out of tonight’s game for undisclosed reasons. Lamont Butler will play however, after missing the first meeting with the Vols.

Tenneesse wants to play slower, but they also lean three-point heavy. The Vols jacked up 45 threes in their first meeting with Kentucky, but made just 11. 43% of their offense has come from behind the arc this season, while they typically shoot around 34% from deep. They dominated the offensive glass versus the Wildcats, leading to plenty of easy putbacks, but we should expect better efficiency from deep tonight for two reasons.

Number one, the Wildcats defense is historically bad. Prior to Saturday’s win over South Carolina, Kentucky was on pace to be the SEC’s worst rated defensive team in the kenpom era (since 1997). They coughed up 98 and 89 points in their previous two games, and 102 points to Alabama last month.

Number two, is the improved health of Tennessee star Zakai Zeigler. The Vols points guard played through a knee injury in their first matchup, which attributed to a 1-of-11 performance from three. Zeigler sat out a game to rest, and then came back with a vengeance. Over his last two games, he’s averaging 19 points, and has buried 7 of his 8 threes.

Tennessee vs Kentucky Prediction & Pick

• Over 149.5

The Wildcats are also going to have to deal with Tennesse guard Chaz Lanier, a top-five Wooden Award odds contender. Lanier leads the team in scoring and three-point efficiency, averaging 18 points per night.

Ultimately, this game is going to be played up in pace, with better efficiency projected for Tennessee. That leads us to targeting the over, which hit easily the last time these SEC rivals met. Kentucky has seen three of its last four games clear the total, and they’re 4-1 to the over as underdogs this season.

Each of the last three contests between these two have soared over 150 points, and we expect this one to follow suit. 65% of the handle is already backing over 149.5, so grab it now before it ticks up.