Tennessee vs Houston Predictions & Picks for Elite Eight
By Chris Amberley in College Basketball
Published:
- The Houston Cougars are 5.5-point favorites over the Tennessee Volunteers in Sunday’s Elite Eight action
- These two teams rank first and third respectively in defensive rating this season
- See my Tennessee vs Houston predictions and picks for the Elite Eight below
The Tennessee Volunteers (30-7) are one win away from their first Final Four appearance. Standing in their way on Sunday, the Houston Cougars (33-4). I’m betting Tennessee finally breaks through, something that oddsmakers disagree with in the college basketball odds.
Tip-off for this Elite Eight matchup is scheduled for 2:20pm ET at Lucas Oil Stadium, in Indianapolis, IN, with CBS providing the broadcast coverage.
Tennessee vs Houston Predictions
My prediction is the Vols not only cover, but pull off the outright upset. They’ve looked like the superior team so far, cruising through their side of the March Madness bracket. Tennessee has racked up three straight 9+ point victories. The latest, a 78-65 win over Kentucky, was a defensive masterpiece.
The Vols held the Wildcats to only 65 points, avenging two regular season losses in league play. They refused to let Kentucky beat them from the outside, forcing the Wildcats inside, and out of their comfort zone. Tennessee racked up eight steals and three blocks, while surrendering only seven offensive rebounds.
Defensive dominance is nothing new to Rick Barnes’ squad, as they rank third nationally in defensive rating. They boast the 10th best scoring defense, rank fourth in opponent field goal percentage, and sixth in defensive rebounding. Their guards in particular are relentless defenders, led by Zakai Zeigler.
The senior is arguably the best defensive guard in the country. He routinely takes away the opposing team’s best player, but this year he’s also elevated his offensive game. Zeigler put up 18 points and 10 assists in the Sweet 16, while Chaz Lanier added 17 points. The team shot 50% from the field, and gobbled up 14 offensive rebounds.
Tennessee vs Houston Ratings
The Cougars meanwhile, had to scratch and claw their way to a win over Purdue. Houston pulled off a magical inbound play with time running down to steal a two point victory, after blowing a 10 point second half lead.
Milos Uzan was the hero, capping off a 22 point night. The win put the Cougars on the verge of their second Final Four appearance in five years, and the sixth trip in program history. They’ll have to get by the Vols first, a task their offense might not be up for.
Houston managed only 62 points versus Purdue, on 37.7% shooting. The Cougars are 165th in points per game this season, and are a dismal free throw shooting team. They rely heavily on triples, but when the threes aren’t falling the offense stalls. We just saw Tennessee neutralize Kentucky’s long range game, and they’ll deploy a similar strategy on Sunday.
Like the Vols, Houston’s bread and butter is on defense. They’re number one in defensive rating, and tops in scoring defense. The Cougars have held two of three March Madness opponents to 60 points or less, while only one team has reached 70 points against them during Houston’s 16-game winning streak.
Tennessee vs Houston Picks
- Tennessee Volunteers Moneyline (+130) at DraftKings
The Cougars defensive prowess is a major hurdle for Tennessee to clear, but I simply don’t trust Houston at the offensive end. The Vols are going to make them play left handed, while I have confidence Zeigler and Lanier can splash enough shots to propel Tennessee to victory.
This year marks the Vols 27th appearance at the NCAA Tournament, and my pick is that they finally get to taste the Final Four stage. They’re fresh off their most complete game of the season, and another effort like that will surely send the Cougars home.
Tennessee vs Houston Odds
The best price we can find on Tennessee’s moneyline is +130 at DraftKings. Tennessee is also catching 2.5 points against the spread. The total currently sits at 124.5, 49 points lower than the Alabama-Duke over/under on Saturday.
Per the college basketball public betting trends, the Vols are 3-3 straight up as an underdog this season, and 9-5 against the country’s top-25 teams.
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Sports Writer
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
