Entering Sweet 16, Odds Say at Least two #1 Seeds Make Final Four

• Sportsbooks have a prop bet on how many #1 seeds will reach the 2019 Final Four 
• Two #1 seeds in the Final Four is a slight favorite
• The last two Final Fours have included two #1 seeds, and there’s been at least one every year since 2012

One is the loneliest number? Not in this year’s NCAA Tournament. All four #1 seeds (Duke, Gonzaga, North Carolina, and Virginia) have advanced to the Sweet Sixteen. How many will make it to Minneapolis?

Sportsbooks are of the opinion that two reaching the Final Four is the most likely outcome. There were two 1-seeds in both the 2017 and 2018 Final Four.

How Many No. 1 Seeds Will Reach 2019 NCAA Tournament Final Four?

*Odds taken March 25

Here’s Why Two is the One

It’s easy to understand the logic of sportsbooks. Last year, there were two #1 seeds in the Final Four. In 2017, there were two 1-seeds in the Final Four.

Over the past four NCAA Tournaments, eight #1 seeds have reached the Final Four, which also works out to an average of two per tourney.

2019 #Sweet16 by seeds:

#1 (4)
#2 (4)
#3 (4)
#4 (2)
#5 (1)
#12 (1)

2018 #Sweet16 by seeds:

#1 (2)
#2 (2)
#3 (2)
#4 (1)
#5 (3)
#7 (2)
#9 (2)
#11 (2)#MarchMadness

— Pypeline (@Pypeline_) March 25, 2019

This is the first year since 2016 that all four no. 1 seeds were still alive in the Sweet Sixteen.

This is the second time ever all 1, 2, and 3 seeds are going to the Sweet Sixteen. Basically, this year is matching the record chalkiness of the 2009 tournament. #MarchMadness

— Jason Russell (@JRussellMI) March 25, 2019

That season, just one of the #1 seeds advanced to the Final Four — North Carolina. But the Tar Heels lost to Villanova, a #2 seed, 77-74 in the championship game.

Sportsbooks are also offering a over/under wager on #1 seeds in the Final Four, setting the number at 1.5, but with the odds heavily favoring the over.

Odds On How Many No. 1 Seeds Will Make It To 2019 NCAA Men’s Tournament Final Four

*Odds taken March 25

Since the NCAA Tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985, two #1 seeds have reached the Final Four 13 times, trailing only one (14 times) as the mean number. Three #1 seeds have made it four times and zero # 1 seeds just twice.

The only time March Madness saw all four #1 seeds comprise the Final Four was in 2008.

Form Charts Are Holding

Fifteen of the top 16 teams in the final AP top 25 regular-season poll are still alive in the Sweet Sixteen. Unranked Oregon, the #12 seed in the south, also lives to play another day.

The No. 1 and No. 2 seeds went undefeated in the first weekend of March Madness, and they're all favored to win in the Sweet 16 https://t.co/WhAS7h5M9f

— Intl. Business Times (@IBTimes) March 25, 2019

For only the second time in NCAA history, all of the #1, #2, and #3 seeds are in the Sweet Sixteen. Every region features a #2-vs-#3 match-up.

In the East and West Regions, you have straight chalk (seeds 1-4), and in the Midwest, it’s 1, 2, 3, 5. Only the South (1, 2, 3, 12) has displayed any deviation.

I was patting myself on the back for getting 15/16 #Sweet16 teams right, & then I realized:
1) We got a 2-3 matchup in every region, &
2) All four 1-seeds advanced, so
3) You could get 12/16 just by picking chalk; makes 15/16 much less impressive #MarchMadness #NCAATournament

— Mitch Carr (@mitchcarrtv) March 25, 2019

Should you stay with the chalk as things move forward? We like Duke and North Carolina to advance. We’re not as sold on Virginia and Gonzaga.

Play the over on the total wager.  In the case of how many #1 seeds reach the Final Four, two is your luckiest number.

Since the NCAA tournament was expanded to 64 teams, #1 seeds have a won-loss record of 454-114, a winning percentage of .798.#MarchMadness

— TouchByAM (@TouchByAM) March 20, 2019

Another thing to keep in mind? In the last ten Final Fours to feature at least two #1 seeds, a #1 has gone on to win the tournament.