St Thomas vs Nebraska Omaha Odds, Predictions & Picks (Summit League Title Game)

• The St Thomas Tommies meet the Nebraska Omaha Mavericks in the 2025 Summit League championship game on Sunday
• The teams split their regular-season meetings, each winning at home
• Below see the St Thomas vs Nebraska Omaha odds plus my favorite picks and player props to target

Playing just their fourth season in Division I, the St Thomas Tommies (24-9, 12-4 Summit, 17-13 ATS) can book their first ticket to March Madness on Sunday night when they face the Nebraska Omaha Mavericks (21-12, 13-3 Summit, 22-9 ATS) at the Denny Sanford Premier Center in Sioux Falls, South Dakota, in the Summit League championship game. Tip-off is scheduled for 7:00 pm MT/9:00 pm ET. The Tommies enter Sunday’s title game as 4.5-point neutral-court favorites. The table below sets out the full odds for the game, which is followed by my St Thomas vs Omaha predictions and picks.

St Thomas vs Nebraska Omaha (Summit League Championship)

On the moneyline, St Thomas is a -180 favorite, which amounts to a 64.29% implied win probability. The Mavericks come back as +152 underdogs (39.68%). The over/under is sitting at 150.5 with -110 odds both ways.

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Omaha has been in DI since 2012 but is also in search of its first appearance in the NCAA Tournament.

The first matchup between these teams resulted in an 89-78 Maverick victory in Omaha on Jan 23. But the Tommies would answer back with a 95-84 victory in St Paul on Feb. 15.

The Mavericks edged out the Tommies by one game for the Summit League regular-season crown. Arguably, no team in all of Division I outperformed preseason expectations more than Omaha. Chris Crutchfield’s team entered the year rated a dismal 319th at KenPom. After their run to the Summit League title game, they have moved up all the way to 165th.

The Tommies have had a similar trajectory, going from 202nd to 121st.

Both teams are 3-1 on neutral courts this season. In the Summit League tournament, Omaha got past Kansas City (70-61) on Thursday before dominating South Dakota (100-75) on Saturday. St Thomas has posted a pair of lopsided wins, beating Denver (80-62) and North Dakota (85-69).

St Thomas vs Nebraska Omaha Prediction

The first thing that stands out about the odds for the Summit League title game is the total.

Both KenPom and Torvik project a total of 159, and their regular-season matchups averaged 173 with both hitting at least 167. Yet, the total for the Summit League title game is a miniscule 150.5.

Yes, defensive intensity is likely to be ramped up compared to the regular-season games, but the Tommies’ semifinal against North Dakota hit 154 points, while the Mavericks’ rout of South Dakota hit an inflated total of 175. Both St Thomas and Omaha pair top-100 offenses in terms of efficiency with defenses in the mid-200s.

The Mavericks will have the best player on the floor, 6’8 senior forward Marquel Sutton (19.1 PPG, 7.7 RPG), who scored 20 and 24 points in the regular-season games against St Thomas while collecting 17 total rebounds. The smaller Tommies are completely reliant on the three-ball; they shoot 46.4% of their field goals from beyond the arc and hit at 38.7%, eighth-best in all of Division I.

Omaha vs St Thomas Picks for Summit League Title Game

• Nebraska Omaha +4.5 (-110)
• Over 150.5 (-110)

I can’t get away from the over. It’s been dropped way too low in the name of playoff intensity. I’m also backing the Mavericks to cover as sizable underdogs. Omaha is 16-3 straight-up since Dec. 15 and already has the confidence that stems from a victory over Sunday’s opponent. This game is much closer to a toss-up than the 4.5-point spread suggests.

Sascha Paruk’s 2024-25 NCAAM betting record: 31-22 (+6.07 units). All wagers 1 unit unless expressly stated otherwise.