SIU Edwardsville vs SE Missouri State Odds, Predictions and Picks for OVC Title Game
By Chris Amberley in College Basketball
Published:
- SE Missouri State is a 2.5-point favorite over SIU Edwardsville in tonight’s OVC title game
- The Redhawks are 2-0 versus the Cougars this season, winning both times by 15+ points
- See the SIU Edwardsville vs SE Missouri State odds, along with my predictions and picks, below
The top-two seeds in the Ohio Valley Conference meet tonight for a spot in March Madness. Number-one seed Southeast Missouri State (21-11, 15-5 OVC) faces number-two seed SIU Edwardsville (21-11, 13-7 OVC) and the latest college basketball odds project a nailbiter, despite recent history. Tip-off is scheduled for 9pm ET at the Ford Center in Evansville, IN, with ESPN2 providing the broadcast coverage.
SIU Edwardsville vs SE Missouri State Odds for OVC Title Game
The Redhawks are currently favored by 2.5-points, in a contest with a total of 135.5. Per the college basketball public betting trends, the spread has held firm since opening odds were released, while the total is down 3 points. SE Missouri State is laying -155 on the moneyline, with the Cougars coming back as a +130 underdog.
The winner of this game gets the Ohio Valley Conference’s automatic bid into the NCAA Tournament. That will land them a Round of 68 matchup, versus a team with much shorter March Madness odds. The Redhawks have made two previous NCAA Tournament appearances, while the Cougars are seeking their first.
OVC Championship Game Predictions: SIU Edwardsville vs SE Missouri State
The old saying goes the third time’s the charm. However, I don’t believe that’s going to be the case when it comes this matchup. SE Missouri State has defeated SIU Edwardsville twice already this season, and I’m betting it happens again tonight.
For starters, there’s a wide gap in their respective advanced rankings. KenPom has the Redhawks graded at 188th in the country, compared to 231st for the Cougars. SE Missouri State is the conference’s best shooting team, and second highest scoring offense. They routed their conference tourney semifinal opponent by 19 points, and are peaking at precisely the right time.
The Redhawks have won 11 of their last 12 outings. Each of their last six victories have come by 10+ points, including an 83-68 win over SIU Edwardsville. That marked the second 15+ point victory against the Cougars, after beating them 80-64 in December.
Both of those contests had glaring similarities. SE Missouri State was ultra efficient from the field, while SIU Edwardsville struggled from three. The Redhawks shot 49% and 53% in the two wins, while the Cougars were held below 28% from deep both times. SE Missouri State protected the basketball and dominated the paint, while limiting fast break opportunities.
No team in the OVC commits fewer turnovers than the Redhawks. They were also the conference’s best free throw shooting team. When you don’t turn the ball over, and capitalize on your freebies, you’re going to be tough to beat.
If you’re going to make the case for SIU Edwardsville, it starts and ends with Ray’Sean Taylor. The OVC’s leading scorer has ten 20+ point games versus conference opponents this season, including a 24 point effort in the Cougars semifinal win last night. That was a 71-69 nail bitter, that saw Taylor on the court for 35 minutes.
SIU Edwardsville vs SE Missouri State Picks
- SE Missouri State -2.5 (-115) at DraftKings
Heavy minutes are nothing new to Taylor, but fatigue will likely come in to play at some point tonight for SIU Edwardsville. They had to scratch and claw their way into the final, while SE Missouri State coasted.
That plays into my decision to make the Redhawks my best bet, but it’s not the only reason. They’re the superior shooting team, and they don’t turn the ball over. They take advantage of free throw opportunities, and they defend the arc exceptionally well. SE Missouri State also features more scoring balance. While the Cougars rely heavily on Taylor, the Redhawks feature three players who put up 11+ points per night.
The trends are also working in my favor. SE Missouri State has covered in 10 of their last 12 outings. SIU Edwardsville meanwhile, has covered only once in its last four games, and is 0-4 ATS in their last four outings as a 2.5+ point underdogs.
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Sports Writer
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
