Is Purdue on Par with Michigan, MSU in Big Ten? March Madness Odds Say No

• The winner of Saturday’s Michigan-Michigan State game will clinch at least a share of the Big Ten title
• If Purdue beats Northwestern, the Boilermakers would also earn a share of the title
• That would give Purdue two conference titles in three years

The Big Ten is still up for grabs, but can Purdue (15-4) be the school that does the grabbing? If they are to do so, they’ll need to do it on the road.

Purdue can earn a share of their 24th Big Ten Conference championship with a win in Evanston. https://t.co/UCdONmNUyh

— Journal & Courier (@jconline) March 8, 2019

No matter what happens this Saturday, when the Boilermakers visit the Northwestern Wildcats and the Michigan Wolverines (15-4) and Michigan State Spartans (15-4) go head to head, Purdue can’t get the No. 1 seed for the Big Ten Tournament, even though they could still earn a share of the Big Ten regular-season title.

Tom Izzo: Michigan-Michigan State will be biggest game in Breslin history https://t.co/pgVJVMF028

— Kyle Austin (@kylebaustin) March 7, 2019

Without the top seed, that means they’ll also likely need to defeat both the Wolverines and the Spartans in order to capture the Big Ten tournament, and that could prove a tall order for most any school to fill.

Perhaps that is part of the reason why Purdue is still lagging far behind UM and MSU in the 2019 March Madness odds, despite seeing those odds climb from around +9000 in February to +2800.

2019 NCAA Tournament: Odds To Win

*All odds taken 03/08/2019. Follow link for complete list.
The best seed the Boilermakers can hope to achieve for the Big Ten tournament is No. 2.

Gopher Ball Derails Purdue Bid

A 73-69 upset loss on Thursday to the Minnesota Golden Gophers knocked Purdue out of sole possession of top spot in the Big Ten and put the Boilermakers squarely behind the eight-ball when it comes to winning the Big Ten.

Michigan, Michigan State and Purdue all sit with identical 15-4 records in conference play.

Since the best they can now hope for is a tie for the title, Purdue’s head-to-head record with Michigan and Michigan State comes into play as a tiebreaker for top seed in the Big Ten tournament.

The 11th-ranked Boilermakers lost 75-67 in their lone game against the No. 9 Wolverines. They beat the No. 11 Spartans 77-63 at home, but fell 77-59 at East Lansing.

That 1-2 overall mark means Purdue can’t win a tiebreaker and is why, at best, the Boilermakers will be a two seed.

If they lose to the Wildcats, they’d be seeded third at best.

What’s In A Boilermaker?

You can argue that the Boilermakers have been punching above their weight all season long. They are the sum of Naismith Award nominee Carsen Edwards and a workmanlike approach to the game. nd even Edwards is radically inconsistent. He averages 23.4 points per game but is shooting just 31.7 percent away from home.

Carsen Edwards is a finalist for the @Hoophall #WestAward, given to nation’s best shooting guard.

👉🏽 Could become first repeat winner of an award in the history of the positional awards. #Purdue / #BoilerUp 🚂 pic.twitter.com/M6M2kEQS5Q

— Purdue Men's Basketball (@BoilerBall) March 5, 2019

Michigan and Michigan State are deeper, better teams with more impressive resumes.

Purdue exceeded expectations this season. The Boilermakers got this far on grit, but grit alone can only take a team so far.

They remain well behind UM and MSU in the title odds, not just because they will have a tougher road to hoe in the conference tournament, but because they are an overall weaker team. They have less depth, a considerably worse defense, and a great-but-streaky leader.

When Edwards goes cold, this team loses to Notre Dame on a neutral court. That’s a bad sign.