Pepperdine vs Saint Mary’s Odds, Picks & Predictions (WCC Tournament)

• The upstart Pepperdine Waves hope to take down the top-seeded Saint Mary’s Gaels in the WCC Tournament semifinals
• The Gaels beat the Waves by 24 and 30 points in their two regular-season meetings
• Below, see the Pepperdine vs Saint Mary’s odds plus my best picks and predictions for Monday’s WCC semis

A near-perfect WCC season continues for the #1 Saint Mary’s Gaels (27-4, 17-1 WCC, 14-16 ATS) on Monday when they face the #9 Pepperdine Waves (13-21, 4-14 WCC, 15-17-1 ATS) in the semifinal of the conference tournament at Orleans Arena in Paradise, NV, at 6:00 pm PT/9:00 pm ET. Saint Mary’s absolutely dominated Pepperdine in their two regular-season meetings and is a massive favorite to advance to Tuesday’s final, where they would face either #2 Gonzaga or #3 San Francisco.

Pepperdine vs Saint Mary’s Odds

Saint Mary’s is laying 19.5 points against the spread and is a hyper-short -5000 on the moneyline in Monday’s college basketball odds, which amounts to a 98.04% implied win probability. The Waves are now listed as +1400 neutral-court underdogs (6.90% implied win probability), which is up from +1350 earlier in the day. The total has been bet up to 135.5 after opening at 134.5, which is a few points lower than the KenPom score projection (78-60) but 10.5 points higher than either of their regular-season totals (112 and 124).

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Public’s Pepperdine vs Saint Mary’s Picks

Even with the increased total, though, public is still hammering the over Monday’s in the college basketball public betting trends, putting 75% of O/U handle on the over as of 5:05 pm ET. The public also has a strong lean to the Gaels to cover the massive spread, putting 57% of ATS handle on Saint mary’s on 63% of the ATS wagers.

Pepperdine, which finished an ugly ninth in the 11-team WCC in the regular season with a dismal 4-14 record, has won three straight games as the betting underdog to reach Monday’s semifinal. On Friday, the Waves crushed Portland (86-73) as one-point underdogs; on Saturday, they got past Oregon State (77-73) as 10.5-point underdogs; and on Sunday, they upset Santa Clara (78-76) as 15.5-point ‘dogs.

The Waves had lost five in a row and eight of nine entering the conference tournament. During the regular season, they were obliterated by the Gaels 71-41 in Moraga, and 74-50 at home.

Pepperdine’s three-game win streak has primarily been powered by two men: 6’8 senior forward Stefan Todorovic (18.5 PPG, 5.6 RPG, 2.2 APG), who’s averaging 24.0 PPG in the WCC Tournament, and 6’1 junior guard Moe Odum (12.9 PPG, 3.2 RPG, 7.7 APG), who’s averaging 22.3 PPG.

As the #1 seed, the Gaels received a bye to the semifinals and will be playing their first game since March 1st. They have won seven in a row since their lone conference loss at San Francisco (65-64) on Feb. 6th. Prior to conference play, Saint Mary’s went 2-1 in neutral-court games, beating Nebraska (77-74) and embarrassing USC (71-36) before losing to Arizona State (68-64).

The Gaels ranked 21st in the latest AP Poll and sit 22nd at KenPom, primarily thanks to their stifling defense, which rates 11th out of all 364 DI teams in efficiency. They play at the sixth-slowest tempo in the nation and have a balanced attack; senior guard Augustas Marciulionis leads the team in scoring, averaging just 14.4 PPG. Sophomore forward Paulius Murauskas (12.8 PPG, 8.1 RPG) and senior center Mitchell Saxen (10.4 PPG, 8.0 RPG) are also in double-figures, and are the primary reason the Gaels rank second in the country in offensive rebound percentage (40.2%) and 15th on defense (74.9%).

Saint Mary’s sits 30th in the latest March Madness championship odds at +10000. Their best result since the NCAA Tournament expanded to 64 teams is the Sweet 16 (2010).

Pepperdine vs Saint Mary’s Prediction

The Waves have been a fun story in the WCC Tournament, but they’re a top-heavy team that will be playing its fourth game in as many nights. And they’ll be playing an opponent that they matchup terribly against. I see the Gaels winning this one in a rout, but I’m also not prepared to lay 19.5 points.

The Gaels are an absolute monster on the glass; they out-rebounded the Waves 50-32 and 41-29 in their pair of lopsided regular-season meetings. Todorovic accounted for just 26 points in the two games, combined, shooting an ugly 11-of-30 from the field.

I do think the Waves can keep this competitive for a half, but I don’t see them exceeding the 56.5-point team total they currently have at DraftKings.

My Best Saint Mary’s vs Pepperdine Picks

• Pepperdine first half +11.5 (-105)
• Pepperdine team total under 56.5 (-105)

My two favorite bets tonight are Pepperdine to cover as 11.5-point first-half underdogs, but also to stay under their full-game team total of 56.5 points. The Waves averaged just 45.5 PPG in their two regular-season meetings against the Gaels’ stout defense, and now they’re playing their fourth game in as many days.

Sascha Paruk’s 2024-25 NCAAM betting record: 34-22 (+8.52 units). All wagers 1 unit unless expressly stated otherwise.