Oregon vs Michigan State Odds, Picks, Predictions & Props (Big Ten Tournament)

• The #1 Michigan State Spartans are sizable betting favorites over the #8 Oregon Ducks in the Big Ten quarterfinals on Friday afternoon
• The Spartans won the only regular-season meeting by 12, but that came in East Lansing
• See the Oregon vs Michigan State odds, predictions, and player prop picks for March 14

Hoping to pair a Big Ten Tournament crown with the regular-season title already on their resume, the top-seeded Michigan State Spartans (26-5, 17-3 Big Ten, 21-9-1 ATS) face the #8 Oregon Ducks (24-8, 12-8 Big Ten, 15-16-1 ATS) in the quarterfinals of the Big Ten Tournament on Friday morning at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis (12:00 pm ET). The Ducks are coming off a resounding 72-59 win over Indiana last night but they now find themselves laying a bucket-full of points to the Spartans in Friday’s college basketball odds.

Oregon vs Michigan State Odds

Michigan State is listed as a 6.5-point neutral-court favorite and -292 on the moneyline, giving the Spartans a 74.49% implied win probability. The Ducks are +235 underdogs (29.85%) despite riding an eight-game win streak into the Big Ten quarters. The game total is sitting at 142.5 with -110 odds on both the over and the under.

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The Ducks are 16-16 O/U on the season but the Spartans have been one of the best under bets in the nation all year. MSU enters the Big Ten Tournament 10-21 O/U, hitting the under in 67.9% of their first 31 games.

As the top-seed in the conference, Michigan State received a double-bye directly to the quarterfinals. Tom Izzo’s team has had a five-day layoff since trouncing arch-rival Michigan (79-62) at home on the final day of the regular season.

As the #8 seed, Oregon was pitted against #9 Indiana in the second round on Thursday. The Ducks battled back from an early 17-11 deficit to take an eight-point lead into halftime. The Hoosiers pulled within two twice in the second half but never closer and Oregon pulled away late for a 72-59 win. The Ducks’ backcourt proved the difference; sophomore guard Jackson Shelstad (13.4 PPG, 3.0 RPG, 2.7 APG) had a team-high 18 points while senior guard TJ Bamba (10.4 PPG, 3.4 RPG, 2.9 APG) added 17.

Oregon’s defense was the real MVP of the game, limiting IU to just 36.2% shooting from the field

The Spartans earned an 86-74 home win over the Ducks in the team’s only regular-season meeting but it didn’t come without serious tribulations. Oregon ended the first half on an 11-1 run to take a massive 50-36 lead into the break. But MSU started the second on a 12-0 run and pulled away with a 17-2 run later in the half.

Freshman guard Jase Richardson (11.6 PPG, 3.1 RPG, 1.9 APG) cued the comeback with 29 points and five rebounds, helping the Spartans finish +14 on the glass.

ORE vs MSU Player Props

Oregon vs Michigan State player props from bet365 on March 14. If you’re new to college basketball betting, learn how to bet on March Madness with SBD’s handy guide

Both the Ducks and Spartans feature balanced offenses. No player on either team averaged more than Nate Bittle’s 13.9 PPG. The Spartans have seven different players clustered between 7.0 and 12.9 PPG. Jase Richardson, MSU’s leading scorer, has the highest point total on Friday at 15.5, almost three higher than his season average. He’s followed closely by both Bittle and Shelstad at 14.5.

MSU 6’9 forward Jaxon Kohler (8.1 PPG, 7.8 RPG) has the highest rebound total at 7.5. He absolutely dominated the glass the first time these teams met, grabbing 12 boards in 31 minutes.

Oregon vs Michigan State Picks & Predictions

• Oregon +6.5 (-110) at Caesars
• Kohler over 7.5 rebounds (-125) at bet365

Sascha Paruk’s 2024-25 NCAAM betting record: 48-35 (+9.58 units). All wagers 1 unit unless expressly stated otherwise.

The two bets I’m targeting in this game are Oregon to cover the 6.5-point spread, and Jaxon Kohler to go over his rebound total of 7.5.

As mentioned, Oregon found a ton of first-half success against the Spartans in their first meeting in East Lansing. They poured in 50 first-half points before a second-half collapse. Dana Altman’s team should come in with plenty of confidence that they can hang with the top team in the Big Ten, and that should be supplemented by their extant eight-game win streak, which includes quality road wins at Wisconsin (77-73 OT) and Iowa (80-78).

This play isn’t a fade of the Spartans. I like the Spartans to not only win the Big Ten Tournament but also make a deep run in the 2025 NCAA Tournament. Their 19-1 run through an arduous Big Ten schedule vaulted them to fifth in the latest March Madness odds. But 6.5 is a significant number. I see this game being competitive throughout.

I’m also targeting the over on Kohler’s rebound total. The success he had on the glass in the first game against Oregon should be replicable. The Ducks rated just 152nd in OREB% and 150th in DREB%. Kohler is a big part of the reason MSU ranks 20th and 13th in DI, respectively, in those two categories.

The Public’s Picks for Michigan State vs Oregon

The public has been absolutely hammering the Spartans, who are riding an eight-game win streak, to make it nine in a row on Friday. So far, a massive 95% of moneyline handle is on Michigan State to win on an equal 95% of moneyline wagers.

The ATS splits tell a different story, however. As of 10:41 am ET, 54% of ATS money was on the Ducks to cover, along with 62% of ATS tickets.

The public also has a strong take on the total, putting 88% of game-total handle on the over along with 87% of O/U tickets.