Opening Duke vs Louisville Odds & Picks for ACC Title Game – Blue Devils Favored Without Flagg
By Sascha Paruk in College Basketball
Published:
- Minus Cooper Flagg, Duke will meet Louisville for the ACC Tournament title on Saturday, March 15
- Duke beat Louisville by double-digits in the regular season but that was back in December
- See the opening Duke vs Louisville odds plus early lines to target
The 2025 ACC Tournament concludes on Saturday with the #1 Duke Blue Devils (30-3, 19-1 ACC, 21-12 ATS) facing the #13 Louisville Cardinals (27-6, 18-2 ACC, 20-13 ATS) at 8:30 pm ET at the Spectrum Center in Charlotte, NC. Despite missing the top player in the nation, the Blue Devils have opened as favorites in Saturday’s Duke vs Louisville odds.
Duke vs Louisville Odds
Editor’s note: the odds in the table were updated at 9:33 am ET, March 15. The remainder of the article was published at 12:23 am ET.
The Blue Devils are laying 6.5 points in the opening line for the ACC Tournament final. On the moneyline, they are -285 chalk, which equals a 74.03% implied win probability. The Cardinals come back as +230 underdogs to win their first ACC Tournament ever. (Louisville joined the ACC in 2014.)
Duke’s Path to the ACC Final
With a double-bye to the quarterfinals as the #1 seed, Duke only needed to win two games to reach the ACC Tournament final. On Wednesday, the Blue Devils overcame an early 26-12 deficit to beat Georgia Tech (78-70). But, in the process, lost Cooper Flagg (18.9 PPG, 7.5 RPG, 4.1 APG) to a serious ankle injury. Flagg not only leads Duke in points, rebounds, and assists, he’s also the favorite in the 2025 Wooden Award odds for the top player in the nation.
Without leading scorer and Wooden Award favorite Cooper Flagg, Duke escaped a spirited comeback attempt by arch-rival North Carolina last night, barely hanging for a 74-71 win despite holding a 21-point halftime lead. Kon Knueppel (14.2 PPG, 3.9 RPG, 2.7 APG) stepped up in Flagg’s absence, scoring a team-high 17 points with four rebounds and three assists.
Duke vs Louisville vs KenPom Ratings
Louisville’s Path to the ACC Championship Game
A year after finishing dead-last in the conference at 3-17, Louisville pulled off one of the most-remarkable one-year turnarounds in college basketball history. In his first year at the helm, Pat Kelsey led the Cardinals to an 18-2 record in ACC play, tied with Clemson for second behind Duke (19-1). Louisville enters the ACC final on an 11-game win streak.
In the ACC tournament, the Cardinals took care of Stanford in a quarterfinal nail-biter (75-73). Their semifinal win over Clemson was arguably their most impressive W of the season. Terrence Edwards (16.1 PPG, 3.9 RPG, 2.6 APG) poured in a team-high 21 points en route to a 76-73 win as 2.5-point underdogs.
While Louisville fell by double-digits at home to Duke in the regular season, it is important to note that game took place in December, while the Cardinals were limping their way to a 6-5 start to the season. Louisville only lost two games thereafter, both true-road games: 93-85 at Kentucky and 77-70 at Georgia Tech.
With the ACC suffering through a down season, the Cardinals didn’t have a ton of opportunities for marquee victories. They wound up 5-5 against top-50 KenPom teams.
Duke vs Louisville Early Prediction
The Blue Devils played on phenomenal half against UNC and one disastrous one. It’s hard to know what to make of this team without Flagg. Their far more than a one-man team; they wouldn’t be head-and-shoulders above the rest of the country in Net Rating if they were. But Flagg is undeniably the centerpiece that holds everything else together, and I don’t consider them a national-title threat without their best player.
He had 20 points and nine rebounds in just 28 minutes when Duke beat Louisville back in December.
If oddsmakers are still going to treat Duke like the powerhouse of the ACC sans Flagg, I’m going to fade the Blue Devils. I saw way too many cracks in the foundation in the semifinals against a tepid UNC team to back them as short favorites against a quality Louisville group.
Duke vs Louisville Pick: Louisville moneyline (+235)
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Managing Editor
Sascha has been working in the sports-betting industry since 2014, and quickly paired his strong writing skills with a burgeoning knowledge of probability and statistics. He holds an undergraduate degree in linguistics and a Juris Doctor from the University of British Columbia.
