Odds to Win March Madness Heading Into Final Four – Duke Favored Over Florida, Houston, Auburn

• The four #1 seeds have all reached the 2025 Final Four (Auburn, Duke, Florida, and Houston)
• Duke will face Houston in the first semifinal while Auburn meets Florida in the second on Saturday, April 5
• See the odds to win March Madness for the four remaining teams ahead of the 2025 Final Four

One of the chalkiest NCAA Tournaments in history will culminate with all four #1 seeds squaring off in the 2025 Final Four: South #1 Auburn Tigers (32-5), East #1 Duke Blue Devils (35-3), West #1 Florida Gators (34-4), and Midwest #1 Houston Cougars (34-4). The national semifinals will take place at the Alamodome in San Antonio, starting with Florida vs Auburn at 6:09 pm ET, followed by Houston vs Duke at 8:49 pm ET (approximate tip-off time).

Despite the nation’s four strongest teams all reaching the Final Four, the March Madness championship odds are still fairly lopsided in favor of Duke. Oddsmakers basically see the Final Four as Duke vs the field.

Odds to Win March Madness (Final Four)

Duke is priced as an even-money (+100) favorite, giving the Blue Devils a 50% implied win probability. The Gators, who are 2.5-point favorites in the opening Florida vs Auburn odds, are the second-favorite at +250 (28.57% implied win probability). Houston is the third-favorite at +400 (20%) with Auburn bringing up the rear at +475 (17.39%).

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Duke Heavily Favored Entering Final Four

Duke was already the betting favorite to win the national championship when the 2025 NCAA Tournament began, priced at +325 after Selection Sunday. The Blue Devils have, inarguably, been the most-impressive team – top to bottom – throughout the first four rounds of the tournament.

Duke’s smallest margin of victory was seven points (100-93) against Arizona in a game they led by double-digits for the vast majority of the second half. Propelled by a sublime 30-point, six-rebound, seven-assist performance from Cooper Flagg (18.9 PPG, 7.5 RPG, 4.2 APG), the Blue Devils’ win probability was never below 88% in the entire second half against Arizona.

In the Elite Eight against a high-powered Alabama offense, Duke flexed its defensive muscles, holding the Tide to just 65 points (nearly 30 lower than they averaged in their first three games) in a 20-point win.

Jon Scheyer’s team also showed off its depth: Flagg had a solid night with 16 points and nine boards, but it was fellow freshman Kon Knueppel who led the way with 21 while Tyrese Proctor added 17 and Khaman Malauch had 14 and seven rebounds. Duke shot a highly-efficient 55.5% from the field while limiting Alabama to 45.5% and finishing +11 on the glass.

The opening Houston vs Duke odds favored the Blue Devils by 5.5 points, but that spread came down almost immediately to 4.5, which is where it sits currently.

Auburn’s Johni Broome Escapes Injury Scare

The Tigers didn’t have much trouble in the South Region, culminating with a 70-64 win over #2 Michigan State that was not nearly as close as the final score would have you believe. But late in their Elite Eight victory, SEC Player of the Year Johni Broome () went to the locker room with elbow and ankle injuries suffered on the same play. It didn’t look like he was going to return – and sportsbooks briefly took the Auburn odds off the board – but x-rays were negative and Broome walked back onto the court for the final five minutes.

But even with Broome appearing to be healthy after the Elite Eight, his Tigers have opened as 2.5-point underdogs to SEC rival Florida. The Gators and Tigers met once in the regular season with Florida taking an impressive 81-70 victory on the road. That was one of only two home losses for the Tigers this season; they also fell in OT to Alabama in the final game before the SEC Tournament.