North Carolina vs San Diego State Predictions, Picks & Props (March 18)

• North Carolina and San Diego State face off in the First Four as an 11-seed play-in game in the 2025 NCAA Tournament
• The Tar Heels were a controversial selection, while the Aztecs have a proven March Madness pedigree
• Read below for UNC vs SDSU predictions, picks, and top player prop bets for March 18

The First Four of March Madness kicks off Tuesday night with a juicy matchup between the North Carolina Tar Heels and San Diego State Aztecs. KenPom has UNC at #33 and SDSU at #46, so we’re looking at what should be a tight 11-seed play-in game.

The Tar Heels snuck into the field (many thought they wouldn’t make it), while the Aztecs are tournament regulars with 12 appearances in the last 15 years. Despite ranking lower, North Carolina opened as 3.5-point favorites before the line jumped to UNC -4.5.

Let’s get into our UNC vs SDSU prediction for Tuesday night, including a prop pick recommendation at great value.

North Carolina vs San Diego State Prediction & Pick

While the Tar Heels have more raw talent with NBA prospects like freshmen Ian Jackson and Drake Powell, I believe San Diego State will keep this game close with their stifling defense. The Aztecs rank 13th in adjusted defensive efficiency per KenPom and lead the nation in block percentage.

UNC loves to attack the rim with guards RJ Davis and Elliot Cadeau, but that’s walking right into SDSU’s trap. The Aztecs wall off the paint masterfully, ranking top 20 in both 2P% and FG% at the rim. North Carolina isn’t built to punish them from outside either, sitting at just 228th nationally in 3-point attempt rate.

Tempo is huge here, too. The Heels want to run (34th in pace), but the Aztecs will grind this game to a halt and make them execute in the half court. SDSU plays at a snail’s pace (245th in tempo) and their methodical style gives teams fits in tournament settings.

I also can’t ignore UNC’s troubles against quality opponents either. They went a brutal 1-12 in Quad 1 games, feasting mostly on the ACC’s bottom-feeders. San Diego State might be just another 11-seed on paper, but their defense is legit elite, on par with the top teams in the country.

Making matters worse for Carolina, Magoon Gwath is back. The Mountain West Defensive Player of the Year returns from injury to boost SDSU’s already tough defense. The 7-foot freshman will make life miserable for Davis and Cadeau at the rim.

I’m also considering the fact that some sharp bettors seem to be on the Aztecs, with 15% of bets but 23% of the moneyeline handle on SDSU +164 in the CBB public betting trends. Despite the public’s love fest with the Tar Heels, there are plenty of reasons to believe SDSU will cover this small number.

• North Carolina vs. San Diego State Prediction: San Diego State +4.5

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North Carolina vs San Diego State Props

Plenty of college basketball players props are available for this First Four showdown, including points, rebounds and assists. Here is a look at some of what BetMGM is offering for UNC vs SDSU:

NCAAB props as of Mar. 18 at BetMGM Sportsbook.

RJ Davis and Nick Boyd have the highest lines for points at 16.5 and 15.5 respectively. For rebounds, Ven-Allen Lubin leads the way with an over/under of 8.5. The assist category is topped by Nick Boyd and Elliot Cadeau, who both shares lines of 4.5.

North Carolina vs San Diego State Prop Bet

If you’re hunting for a solid prop bet, I love Elliot Cadeau Over 4.5 Assists at -114. The sophomore point guard has been UNC’s main distributor, dishing out 6.0 assists per game and ranking 18th nationally in assist rate.

With SDSU likely zeroing in on stopping RJ Davis, Cadeau should have plenty of drive-and-kick opportunities. He’s cleared this number in 9 of his last 12 games, so I’m riding with the over.

• UNC vs SDSU Prop Pick: Elliot Cadeau Over 4.5 Assists (-114)

UNC vs SDSU Odds

The Tar Heels are favored in this First Four matchup, with a moneyline of -198. This means you would need to bet $198 on UNC to win $100 if they emerge victorious. Conversely, San Diego State is a +164 underdog, so a $100 wager would net you $164 in profit if the Aztecs pull the upset.

On the spread, North Carolina is laying 4.5 points at standard -110 juice. To cover, they would need to win by 5 or more. If you believe the game will be closer than the oddsmakers expect, San Diego State +4.5 allows you to take the points at the same -110 price. The Aztecs can lose by up to 4 and still cover the spread.

For those interested in a total bet, the over/under is set at 142.5 with -110 odds on either side. If you expect a higher-scoring game, over 142.5 is the play, while under bettors are banking on a defensive battle. Note that the total has risen 2 points from the opener of 140.5, indicating early money has come in on the over.

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Odds as of March 18, 2025, at BetMGM Sportsbook. Unlock the BetMGM promo code to bet on UNC vs SDSU and other First Four action.