New Mexico vs Marquette Odds, Player Props & Betting Predictions

• #10 New Mexico faces #7 Marquette in the Round of 64
• Marquette is a 3.5-point favorite over the Lobos in the first round of March Madness
• See below for the latest New Mexico vs Marquette odds, player props, and predictions

The Marquette Golden Eagles (23-10, 14-18-1 ATS) take on the New Mexico Lobos (26-10, 5-17 ATS) in the 7 vs 10 matchup of the South Region. The winner of this game will play the winner of 2-seed Michigan State and 15-seed Bryant in the Round of 32.

This game will feature two of the country’s most electric point guards: Donovan Dent of New Mexico and Kam Jones of Marquette. The outcome of this game will likely come down to which of them has the better night.

Both teams have struggled historically to cover the spread in the tournament, but one trend will buck on Friday night. New Mexico is 1-8 against the spread all-time in March Madness, while Shaka Smart is 3-9 ATS in his last 12 tournament games and just 2-5 against the spread as a favorite in the NCAA Tournament.

Keep reading for the latest New Mexico vs Marquette odds, plus my picks and predictions for this March Madness matchup.

New Mexico vs Marquette Odds

The college basketball odds have Marquette as a 3.5-point favorite over New Mexico in the Round of 64. The line has not moved since opening. With -182 odds on the moneyline, sportsbooks are giving the Golden Eagles a 64.54% implied probability to advance to the Round of 32.

The total for this first-round matchup opened at 151.5 but is now set at 152.5.

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New Mexico vs Marquette KenPom Rankings

Both of these teams are strong on the defensive end as they rank in the top 24 in defensive efficiency. The biggest difference between these teams in terms of KenPom is the tempo in which they play. The Lobos play fast and are fourth in the entire country in adjusted tempo, while Marquette is 155th.

The frantic pace at which New Mexico plays forces a lot of stress on opposing teams resulting in turnovers. The Lobos force turnovers on 20.4% of opponent possessions and thrive in transition offense.

New Mexico vs Marquette Player Props

Star point guards Donovan Dent and Kam Jones are tied for the highest O/Us in the points market at 20.5. Dent is averaging 20.6 points per game, while Jones is averaging 19.3. Dent has scored at least 23 points in five of his last six games, and Jones has scored at least 21 in each of his last four.

Nelly Junior Joseph’s O/U for rebounds is by far the highest at 12.5. He is averaging just over 11 rebounds per game this season but has at least 13 in five of his last six games.

When looking for value in the Marquette vs New Mexico player prop market, there is one that stood out to me above any other.

Nelly Junior Joseph’s points prop is set at 13.5, and I like the over in this matchup. He has scored at least 14 points in his last three games and in ten of his last 13. Marquette is great at defending the perimeter but struggles to defend inside, so this is a great matchup for Junior Joseph. Expect New Mexico to feed him early and often in this game.

New Mexico vs Marquette Player Prop Pick: Nelly Junior Joseph Over 13.5 Points (-130)

New Mexico vs Marquette Betting Prediction

The Mountain West has been abysmal in March Madness. Since 2006, Mountain West teams are 26-55 (32.1%) against the spread, and it has not gotten any better recently. Since 2016, they are 10-25 (28.6%) ATS and are 0-2 against the number this year. New Mexico, themself, has not covered a spread in the tournament since 1999, so I might regret this, but I am predicting that the Lobos cover the spread on Friday.

These two teams are very similar. Both have a star point guard, both like to force turnovers and get out in transition, and both struggle to shoot the three.

That means the difference in this game will be rebounding and getting points down low, and the Lobos have a clear advantage there. New Mexico was second in the Mountain West in rebounding margin, while Marquette has a -1.7 rebounding margin this season. The Lobos are especially good at offensive rebounds, and the Golden Eagles on the other hand were 10th in the Big East in combined opponent rebounds.

I expect Donovan Dent and Nelly Junior Joseph to utilize the pick and roll and have a big day inside to take advantage of Marquette’s weak interior defense. The Golden Eagles have been streaky all year and have not covered the spread in four straight games, and I cannot trust them to win by a margin here. The Mountain West narrative is scary, but I am locking in New Mexico to cover the spread vs Marquette in the Round of 64.

New Mexico vs Marquette Pick: New Mexico +3.5 (-104)