Most Likely March Madness Upsets & Best Underdogs to Bet

• The NCAA Tournament has arrived with the First Four starting Tuesday
• What schools have the ability to shatter a bracket in 2025?
• See the best underdogs to bet and the most-likely upsets for the first-round of March Madness, below

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It’s the most wonderful time of the college basketball year. The NCAA Tournament is upon us, and we get our chance to pick the teams that can shatter a bracket. As much as you can analyze and research and plot out the best upsets available, there’s no real way to see the carnage unfold … until it unfolds.

With the 2025 March Madness tournament in front of us (I don’t know about you, but I’m not actually a First Four kind of guy), let’s run down some of our favorite upsets and underdogs to consider. Let’s go!

Most Likely March Madness Bracket Upsets

This is the most traditional form of upset: when a higher seed upends a lower seed, referred to as bracket upsets. If you’re the person that is filling out multiple printable March Madness brackets, we’re looking at the schools that can drop a better seed and start getting some odd-numbered matchups in the region. The weirder, the better. Sorry, 9v8 matchups aren’t exactly upsets, so they sit out.

1. #12 Colorado State to beat #5 Memphis – as of early Tuesday morning, the Rams are the only worse seed tabbed as the betting favorite in the college basketball odds. Colorado State ranked in the top three in both scoring offense and defense in the Mountain West, and they can definitely hang with the Tigers.
2. #10 Arkansas to beat #7 Kansas – The Razorbacks had the sixth-best scoring defense playing in the SEC, and can go toe-to-toe with this year’s Jayhawks.
3. #12 UC San Diego to beat #5 Michigan – This one was the closest line an underdog had to a favorite without actually being a favorite. Teams with 30-4 records like UC San Diego should be perceived as a threat – especially when they rank first in scoring defense in the Big West and third in points.

Looking for even bigger numbers to pull off an upset? We’ve already run down a pair of 12 seeds that could shock the world, so let’s get to the 13, 14 and 15 seeds that could make some noise.

Best 13-seed upset: Akron over Arizona

The Zips were the class of the Mid-American Conference, finishing the regular seaosn at 28-6 while boasting the top scoring offense in the conference, putting up 84.6 points per game. They’re going to need that going against the Big 12’s top scoring unit in Arizona, who dropped 81.7 points per game. The Wildcats’ scoring D was a distant 13th in their conference, so Akron should be able to keep pace.

Yes, their odds are long, starting at +750, which comes out to a 11.6% chance to win the game.

Best 14-seed upset: Troy over Kentucky

The Trojans have the shortest odds to win of any 14 seed, and I think it’s because of their top-three scoring defense in the Sun Belt Conference. The Wildcats are no slouch, but they are second to last in the SEC in points allowed per game at 77.9. The Trojans are as short as +500 to win, which implies a 16.67% chance.

Best 15-seed upset: Bryant over MSU

It’s a highly unlikely this upset pick hits, but most #15 seeds don’t make it past their first game of the NCAA Tournament. Byrant is the king of the American East, leading the conferene in scoring at 86.4 points per game.

That’s about as much as you can ask when going against a Div I power, who finished first in the Big Ten. The Bulldogs odds to win can be found as short as +1250, which comes out to a probability of 7.41%.

Best March Madness First Round Underdogs to Bet

In this section, we focus on underdogs paying plus-money in the event of an upset. Note: As of early Tuesday, very few March Madness public betting splits have been posted, so be sure to have a look at that one it’s been updated. For the record, here’s who I like:

New Mexico (+150) at bet365

The Lobos are the top scoring team in Mountain West, dropping 81.2 points per game, and rank top-three in 3-point shooting at a 34.7% clip. They were just edged out by Boise State in the Mountain West Conference Tournament Final, having reeled off four straight wins prior to getting upended. They’ll be taking on 7th-seeded Marquette a school that ranks top four in both scoring offense and defense, but they stagger into the tournament having dropped three of four.

New Mexico plays at a tempo ranked fourth in KenPom. If they can get the pace up to their liking, there’s a good chance that (+150) hits.

BACK IN FRONT! @Donovandent1

📺 @CBSSportsNet #GoLobos | #MWMadness pic.twitter.com/wC0PMBaFOc

— Lobo Basketball (@UNMLoboMBB) March 15, 2025

Grand Canyon (+450) at bet365

If you’re following along, you’ll see another one of my upset pick tagged to a team that has the ability to put the ball in the basket. That’s what Grand Canyon did this year in the Western Athletic Conference, averaging 79.9 points. They’ll need to be able to keep up, as the Maryland Terrapins are first in Big Ten scoring at 81.7 points per game.

The Lopes have an implied win probability of 18.18%.