Michigan State Leads Non-1 Seeds in NCAA Men’s Tournament Odds ahead of Sweet 16

• No. 1 Duke barely escaped No. 9 UCF with a 77-76 win
• No. 2 Michigan State has been sloppy in its own right
• Spartans opened at +1300 to win March Madness but are currently at +1000

The 2019 edition of March Madness has been a tournament of favorites. Every single one of the favorites in the Round of 32 won outright, going 16-0.

That said, the outright favorite – the Duke Blue Devils – showed some cracks in their armor, and that’s helped Michigan State – the #2 seed in Duke’s region – climb the NCAA Tournament futures odds.

Which teams are the best value bets ahead of the Sweet 16?

2019 NCAA Men’s Tournament Futures Odds

Blue Devils Struggle With UCF

The Blue Devils are the overall No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament and were supposed to be bulletproof as long as Zion Williamson was healthy – at least until the Elite Eight.

However, Duke ahs struggled a bit this tournament, trailing early in their opening contest against No. 16 North Dakota State and then nearly losing to No. 9 Central Florida, needing last-minute heroics from both Zion and RJ Barrett to escape with the narrowest of wins (77-76).

“DUKE SURVIVES, JUST BARELY!” pic.twitter.com/qRD5piOeGG

— CBS Sports (@CBSSports) March 24, 2019

The question becomes was this just a one-off or was this a blueprint for how to beat a team that was viewed as impenetrable?

For now, sportsbooks seem to be siding with the latter, as Michigan State’s odds to win the tournament have improved.

Spartans Odds Improve to +1000

The Spartans opened the NCAA Tournament as a 13/1 shot to win it all and, even though Duke is still in their way, they are down to 10/1. That’s partially because the Blue Devils have struggled but it’s also because Sparty has won both its contests by double-digits.

#Sweet16 Power Rankings from @TheAndyKatz!

1. North Carolina
2. Gonzaga
3. Duke
4. Virginia
5. Tennessee
6. Purdue
7. Florida State
8. Michigan State
9. Texas Tech
10. Michigan
11. Auburn
12. LSU
13. Kentucky
14. Houston
15. Virginia Tech
16. Oregon#MarchMadness pic.twitter.com/qdtr96YsQT

— NCAA March Madness (@marchmadness) March 25, 2019

However, taking a closer look, their performance against No. 15 Bradley is concerning. Sure, Duke had a brief hiccup in the first half of their opener, but Michigan State was losing to Bradley with just 6:24 to go.

Even in their win against Minnesota (70-50), which was undoubtedly impressive, they committed 16 more turnovers and let a 17-point lead shrink to nine in the second half.

Another performance like one of those first two and this team will be going home sooner than expected.

Is Michigan State the Best Bet among Non-#1 Seeds?

Scrutinizing the non-#1 seeds, Michigan State is not overly exciting at +1300. Their performance so far has left a little to be desired.

Can they play better? Definitely. Is now the time to invest, knowing that they still haven’t been in peak form and have Duke in front of them? No.

Bet Kentucky If Washington Returns

Depending on one pivotal injury issue, Kentucky looks like good value at +1200.

Their defense has been stellar, as evidenced by shutting out Fletcher Magee – one of the best three-point shooters in college basketball history — from beyond the arc (0/12). They’re hot, too, as this team has now won 19 of its last 22 games.

It was not Fletcher Magee’s day.

Kentucky is poised to hang on. pic.twitter.com/AS5KjPZ83e

— CBS Sports (@CBSSports) March 23, 2019

But wait to bet Kentucky until the status of leading scorer and rebounder P.J. Washington becomes clear. They still have to get by Houston and likely UNC in the Midwest. While they own a neutral-site win over the Heels already (80-72), Washington nearly posted a triple-double in that game (11 points, 10 rebounds, 8 assists).

What About Florida State?

Looking for a good price on an outside contender? Consider Florida State. This is a team with plenty of experience as they went to the Elite Eight last year (after beating Gonzaga).

A MANN’S JAM! ?

Terance Mann extends Florida State’s lead to 14!#MarchMadness | @FSUHoops pic.twitter.com/gnmIr8iss9

— NCAA March Madness (@marchmadness) March 23, 2019

Few teams were more impressive in round two than the Seminoles. They have incredible depth with a solid 10-man rotation headlined by guard Terance Mann, who is one of the most underrated players in the Tournament. This team has what it takes to make it to the Final Four and beyond.

At +4000, there is a lot to like about FSU.