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LSU vs Kentucky Prediction, Preview & Odds (Tuesday, Mar. 4)

Chris Wassel

By Chris Wassel in College Basketball

Published:


Kentucky men's basketball head coach Mark Pope on the sideline
Kentucky men's basketball head coach Mark Pope during the game against No.1 Auburn Saturday afternoon in Lexington, Kentucky March 1, 2025
  • The LSU Tigers travel to Lexington to face the Kentucky Wildcats on Tuesday
  • Kentucky has struggled in the SEC but faces an LSU team that has been putrid in conference play
  • See the LSU vs Kentucky odds, preview, and betting predictions for Mar 4, below

The #19 Kentucky Wildcats (19-9, 14-3 home, 8-8 SEC, 14-14-1 ATS) attempt to regain their footing in the SEC when they entertain the LSU Tigers (14-15, 2-7 away, 3-13 SEC, 14-15 ATS) on Tuesday night at Memorial Gymnasium at 7:00 pm ET on ESPN2. The Wildcats are 12.5-point home favorites in Tuesday’s college basketball odds

LSU vs Kentucky Odds

Bet TypeLSUKentucky
Spread+12.5 (-110)-12.5 (-110)
Moneyline-140+116
TotalO 157.5 (-110)U 157.5 (-110)

Kentucky is a whopping -850 favorite on the moneyline at home, which amounts to a 89.47% implied win probability. The Commodores counter as +570 road underdogs (14.93% implied win probability). The game total is up to 158.5 at an even -110. 

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Kentucky might be one of the toughest teams in the nation for bettors to figure out. The Wildcats dropped close games to Alabama and Auburn but struggled against Oklahoma on the road and lost to Texas (5-11 in the SEC). As for LSU, a bad season has only become uglier of late as the Tigers have dropped 13 of their previous 16 games (all in the SEC). Too often, the Matt McMahon-coached team cannot finish games off.

The Tigers are one-for the SEC on the road (a win versus Oklahoma). A road win against a hungry Kentucky team would get their overall win/loss record back to .500 and ease the sting of what has been a rough SEC campaign.  

The Wildcats, 8-8 in SEC play, knows they need to win their final two games of the regular season to secure a top-eight seed in the SEC Tournament, which comes with a bye to the second round. UK’s season ends Saturday on the road against No. 15 Missouri. 

YouTube video

The Tigers do not get a break as they face No. 22 Texas A&M on Saturday and then that will be the end of their regular season. Camryn Carter leads the Tigers averaging 16.9 points per game while LSU tries to stop a Kentucky attack that averages 85.5 points per game (fifth in the nation).

YouTube video

Vanderbilt goes as much as eight deep sometimes with seven players playing 19+ minutes in their last game. Only Nickel played over 30 minutes. 

LSU vs Kentucky Predictions

Bluntly, this contest could feature a lack of defense as Kentucky tries to lift the pace at home. and numbers are still moving around. The game total shifted between 156.5 to 158.5 while the spread has been around 12 to 13 points. Kentucky knows this is a must-win in the SEC. However, the Wildcats did lose to Arkansas at home in conference play. Arkansas is 6-10 in the SEC and 3-6 on the road.

Yes, Otega Oweh leads the way averaging 15.5 points per game for Kentucky. The Wildcats allow 77.2 points per game (bottom 50 in the nation). However, Kentucky carries the third roughest schedule in the nation. This may be a game where they try to floor it early with their guards.They go six deep in double figures when it comes to scoring.

Heading to Kentucky may appear easier than most are used to. Kentucky expects to turn the clocks back for a night on Tuesday. If one is looking for player props, look to Oweh who hails from Somerset, New Jersey. The guard has 20+ points in his previous three games against teams not named Auburn or Alabama.

LSU vs Kentucky Picks

  • Kentucky -12.5 points (-110) at FanDuel
  • LSU vs Kentucky Over 158.5 points (-110)

Chris Wassel
Chris Wassel

Sports Writer

A journalist veteran for over two decades, Chris has taught the gamut of fantasy hockey sports online from injuries to news to prospects, and more. He has bet on several sports and written sports betting articles about the NBA, MLB, NCAA football, the NFL, and NHL for USA Today.

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