Liberty vs Oregon Prediction, Pick & Betting Line (Friday, Mar. 21)

• Or Liberty vs Oregon prediction focuses on the game total
• Liberty ranks 3rd nationally in 3PT defense, holding opponents to 28% shooting
• See my Liberty vs Oregon prediction, pick, and line for their March Madness matchup

The 12th-seeded Liberty Flames (28-6) face the 5th-seeded Oregon Ducks (24-9) in a 5-12 matchup to close out Friday’s first-round action. The East Region clash tips off at 10:10 p.m. ET from Climate Pledge Arena in Seattle, WA, with truTV providing the broadcast.

Spread betting is the most popular March Madness wager, but I love an over/under play in my Liberty vs Oregon prediction for Friday night.

Liberty vs Oregon Prediction (East Region 1st Round)

My prediction is that this will be a low-scoring grind that stays comfortably under the 137.5-point total. Several key factors point to a slow-paced defensive battle:

First, sharp money has come in heavily on the under, driving the line down a full two points from the 139.5 opener to the current number of 137.5. Whenever the wiseguys move a March Madness line that significantly, it’s worth paying attention.

The betting market’s expectation for a low-scoring affair aligns with what we’ve seen from Oregon recently. The under is 7-1 in the Ducks’ last eight contests. Coach Dana Altman’s squad ranks an impressive 29th in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency.

On the other side, Liberty plays at a snail’s pace, ranking 285th in adjusted tempo. The Flames also boast the nation’s third-best perimeter defense, limiting opponents to a paltry 28% from beyond the arc. Liberty’s pack-line scheme is designed to limit penetration and challenge outside shots.

Liberty vs Oregon Efficiency Rankings

Oregon’s size and length will also be a major factor. The Ducks rank 110th in rebounding rate and start 7-footer Nate Bittle. They should control the glass against the undersized Flames, who rank outside the top-290 in average height. Limiting Liberty’s second-chance opportunities will be key.

Another issue for Liberty is their dreadful 65.4% free throw shooting, which ranks 348th in the country. Even if they do manage to generate some offense, the Flames may leave key points at the line in a close game.

Finally, the cross-country trek to Seattle for a late tip-off is a tough travel spot for the East Coast-based Flames. Oregon should be much more comfortable with the Pacific time zone. Sluggish starts are common for teams with this type of itinerary.

Liberty vs Oregon Pick

• UNDER 137.5 Total Points (-105) at BetMGM

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I’m backing the Under 137.5 at BetMGM, where we can get it at -105 odds, a nice price considering many other books are dealing 137 flat. This total feels a tad high given the pace, defensive metrics, and situational spot.

Liberty’s low-possession style shortens the game and reduces the number of shot attempts for both teams. Unless Oregon completely abandons their usual approach and pushes tempo, points should be at a premium in this 5-12 showdown.

Liberty vs Oregon Line

The best odds on Liberty +7.5 are widely available at -110, while their moneyline ranges from +230 to +245 depending on the sportsbook. Oregon is favored by 7.5 points, and the juice on their -7.5 spread is -110 to -112 across the board.

Odds current as of March 21, 2025 at BetMGM. Grab a BetMGM promo code to wager on Liberty vs Oregon.

The college basketball public betting trends show an even 50/50 split on the spread, but 79% of tickets are on the Over as of Friday afternoon. However, while the Under has only received 21% of bets, it’s gotten 46% of the money — another sign this is the sharp play.