Iowa State vs Texas Tech Prediction, Odds & Best Bets (Jan. 11)

• No. 3 Iowa State (13-1) travels to Lubbock to take on Texas Tech (11-3) in a Big 12 conference showdown Jan. 11 at 2 p.m. ET.
• The Cyclones have won 10 straight and are a slight favorite on the road at United Supermarkets Arena.
• We break down this big-time basketball match-up between the Cyclones and Red Raiders with the best odds, full analysis and prediction.

Iowa State (13-1, 8-6 ATS) makes one of its least favorite trips of the season when it faces Texas Tech (11-3, 8-6 ATS) Saturday at 2 p.m. on ESPN.

The Red Raiders have beaten the Cyclones four straight times in Lubbock, including a three-point overtime win in 2023.

Iowa State has risen to No. 3 in the AP Poll, but will have to deal with Red Raiders star forward JT Toppin and a rowdy crowd of over 15,000.

Check out our top-tier look at this Big 12 battle below, including a look at the top odds and our prediction.

Iowa State vs Texas Tech Odds

Odds as of Jan. 11 at Caesars Sportsbook. Be sure to check the top Caesars Sportsbook promos before making a bet on any big college hoops match-up. 

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Here’s your key number to know when looking at this one, in the last 10 meetings, Texas Tech is 8-2 against the spread.

The Red Raiders are favored by 2.5 to 1.5 points at our favorite sportsbooks. The total is 147.5 at most places, but you can get a point less at FanDuel. The best moneyline spots are Bet365 for Iowa State at +120 and FanDuel for Texas Tech at -125.

Tech is 4-1 in its last five games against the spread, and three of its last four games have hit the over.

Iowa State has won three in a row against the number, while its last two games have hit the under. It’s clear the oddsmakers expect a close game to the end.

JT Toppin was DOMINANT against Wyoming:

24 points
12 rebounds
2 steals
10-15 FG pic.twitter.com/eQfmzKsoyd

— The Portal Report (@ThePortalReport) November 14, 2024

He’s The Tops

Texas Tech was considered one of the contenders in the Big 12, but stumbled to open conference play with a surprising loss to Central Florida. Since then, the Red Raiders have won two in a row.

Get ready to hear about Tech sophomore forward JT Toppin; yes, he’s the younger brother of Indiana Pacers veteran Obi Toppin. He leads Texas Tech with 17.2 points and 9.1 rebounds.

Texas Tech has great inside-out balance, though guard Chance McMillian is shooting 50 percent from three-point range. That’s right, 50 percent, and it’s not like he takes one a game. He’s 36 for 72 from beyond the arc. And at home, he’s even better. In his last three games at home, he’s 12-17 from three. That’s cooking.

Blowing Strong

After a Sweet 16 finish last season, Iowa State brought a lot of pieces back (unusual in college basketball). They have the 10th-highest-scoring offense in the nation at 86.3 points and are only allowing 64.6.

Curtis Jones helped lead #3 Iowa State past Colorado on the road last night:

20 PTS
3 REB
1 STL@CycloneMBB @curtis_jones3 pic.twitter.com/dd5UsEBa0o

— SLAM University (@slam_university) December 31, 2024

The Cyclones only loss came by two points to Auburn. Since then, they have won 10 in a row, and they’ve won their last three games by 10, 19 and 23 points.

Five Iowa State players score in double figures, with 6-foot-5 senior guard Curtis Jones leading the way with 16.6. Joshua Jefferson is a transfer in from St. Mary, and he is the post presence with 7.9 boards. Iowa State is athletic, feisty on defense and flies on offense.

Iowa State vs. Texas Tech Prediction

• Texas Tech +2.5 at DraftKings
• Under 147.5 at DraftKings

This game gives off those Saturday night college football upset vibes. We can’t ignore the fact that Iowa State just hasn’t played well in Lubbock over the years, and in fact, Texas Tech has won eight of the last 13 meetings overall.

We like the emotional edge a big crowd will give the Red Raiders to start, and they have the ability to match up with Iowa State inside. Toppin is a special player who is moving up the NBA draft boards. The under looks good to us, too, because you know it’ll be a ferocious defensive game. Don’t overthink it.