Florida vs Houston Expert Picks, Predictions & Best Bets for National Championship

• The West #1 Florida Gators and Midwest #1 Houston Cougars will meet in the final of March Madness
• Both teams overcame significant second-half deficits in the Final Four
• See my Florida vs Houston predictions, picks, and best bets for Monday’s national championship game

On paper, it’s a battle of evenly-matched titans in the final of the 2025 NCAA Tournament as the West #1 Florida Gators (35-4, 27-11 ATS) face the Midwest #1 Houston Cougars (35-4, 21-17-1 ATS) at the Alamodome in San Antonio on Monday, April 7. The opening Florida vs Houston odds favored the Gators by 1.5 points and the line has stayed roughly the same over the last couple days. On the morning of gameday, Florida is favored by anywhere from 1.0 to 1.5 points, depending on the sportsbook, with the UF moneyline sitting at -115 across the board.

Florida vs Houston Prediction & Picks

• Florida moneyline (-115) at Caesars
• First half under 66.5 (-115) at DraftKings

I was on Florida at the outset of the tournament and, as good as Houston has looked, I’m not backing off the Gators now. They are too deep, too tall, and too athletic, and they have the high-end NBA-level talent that Houston lacks. Senior guard Walter Clayton Jr (18.5 PPG, 3.7 RPG, 4.1 APG), sophomore forward Thomas Haugh (9.9 PPG, 6.2 RPG, 2.1 APG), and sophomore center Alex Condon (10.5 PPG, 7.6 RPG, 2.3 APG) are all featured in the latest NBA.com mock draft.

Junior guard Milos Uzan (11.5 PPG, 3.0 RPG, 4.3 APG) is the only Cougars player in that mock.

I can give Houston credit where credit is due. Overall, no team has been more impressive since the start of December. The Cougars are 31-1 in that span and, after their absolutely-absurd-completely-improbable 70-67 upset of Duke in the Final Four, have won 18 straight games.

Leading 66-57 with under two minutes to play, the Blue Devils had a 97.5% win probability according to KenPom before a late 11-1 Houston run left everyone with a hundred-mile radius of Durham stunned.

Houston’s calling card all season has been its top-rated defense, which sits first at KenPom, Haslametrics, and Torvik. Florida is second in offensive rating at KenPom, trailing Duke, but don’t let that fool you about just how elite this Gators team is at the offensive end. Their 128.8 O-Rating would have ranked first nationally every season for the past decade, it just happens that Duke’s O-Rating (130.0) is the highest in the KenPom era. Florida’s 128.8 number is the third-highest ever, also trailing 2014-15 Wisconsin (129.0).

Houston’s D-Rating of 87.3, on the other hand, only would have been the top rating nationally three times in the last decade.

In other words, Florida’s offense is almost-record-setting while Houston’s defense – while unquestionably elite – isn’t even among the top-ten from the past ten years. In this battle of strength-on-strength, Florida’s strength is more potent.

That offensive firepower was on full display against Auburn in the Final Four when Florida, like Houston, was staring down the barrel of a big second-half deficit. The Tigers took an eight-point lead into halftime and stretched it to nine early in the second stanza. But an immediate 11-0 UF run would give the Gators a 51-49 lead. After a back-and-for affair over the next eight minutes, Florida would take the lead for good (64-63) with just under seven to play, ultimately triumphing 79-73.

Clayton had another monster game with 34 points, four rebounds, and two assists. Florida’s massive frontcourt limited Johni Broome to just 15 points and seven boards on 6-of-14 shooting.

Updated Florida vs Houston Odds

The Florida vs Houston odds opened with the Gators favored by a point and a half and laying -118 odds on the moneyline. Over the last 16 hours, the line has moved slightly towards the Cougars. The moneyline is now a pick’em with -110 odds each way. The Gators are listed as one-point favorites against the spread, but Houston +1.0 is priced at -115.

The game total has ticked up half a point to 141.0 after opening at 140.5.

The March Madness public betting splits show the Gators getting the majority of ATS handle and moneyline handle so far, while most of the game-total money is on the under (indicating a modicum of reverse line movement in all three markets).

So far, the Gators are getting 61% of moneyline handle on 66% of ML tickets. Florida is also getting 57% of ATS handle on 56% of ATS bets. With respect to the game total, 79% of early money is on the under on 82% of the O/U wagers.