Final Purdue vs Houston Betting Lines, Odds & Score Predictions

• The final Purdue vs Houston odds have moved in favor of the Cougars in the Sweet 16 on Friday
• Houston enters as an 8.5-point favorite after opening at -7.5 against Purdue
• See the closing Purdue vs Houston odds (spread, total, and moneyline) plus public-betting splits and score projections

The #4 Purdue Boilermakers (24-11, 19-16 ATS) face an uphill battle when they take on the #1 Houston Cougars (32-4, 19-16 ATS) at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis on Friday night at 10:09 pm ET on CBS.

While the Cougars opened as 7.5-point favorites last Sunday, the final Purdue vs Houston odds have shifted in Houston’s favor just hours before tip-off.

Updated Purdue vs Houston Odds

Houston is now an 8.5-point favorite against the spread and -500 on the moneyline (compared to -375 in the opening line), giving the Cougars an 80.4% implied win probability. The Boilermakers’ odds to advance sit at +375, carrying a modest 23.8% implied win probability.

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The total for Purdue vs Houston opened at 132.5 points and has climbed up to 134.5, still reflecting the defensive capability of both squads, particularly the Cougars. The combined season average of 152.2 points per game between these teams still sits nearly 20 points higher than the current total, indicating oddsmakers expect a defensive slugfest.

This marks the first meeting between these two programs this season. The Boilermakers are playing what amounts to a home game, with Lucas Oil Stadium sitting just an hour away from their campus in West Lafayette.

Houston survived a tough test against Gonzaga in the second round (81-76) after demolishing SIUE in their opener (78-40), while Purdue handled High Point (75-63) before taking down McNeese State (76-62) to reach the Sweet 16.

The line movement towards the Cougars indicates sharp money favoring Houston, despite the Boilermakers’ virtual home-court advantage. Both teams boast identical 19-16 records against the spread this season, but the Cougars enter this matchup riding an impressive 15-game winning streak.

Purdue vs Houston Score Projection

KenPom is the go-to for most March Madness score prediction, and he has the Cougars picking up an eight-point win with an 80-72 final score. According to Bart Torvik’s projection, however, Houston is favored to defeat Purdue by a much lower total score of 70-62.

Houston’s defense has been their calling card all season, ranking second nationally in opponent field goal percentage (38.1%) while leading the country in both field goals allowed per game (19.5) and points allowed (57.9). They’ll face a stiff test against a Purdue offense that’s hitting 48.8% of its field goals and 38.5% of its three-point attempts this season.

Trey Kaufman-Renn (20.3 PPG, 6.5 RPG) and Braden Smith (16.0 PPG, 8.5 APG) lead the Boilermakers’ attack, with Smith serving as the offensive catalyst through his exceptional playmaking. For Houston, veteran guard L.J. Cryer (15.6 PPG) is coming off a 30-point explosion against Gonzaga, including six three-pointers in that second-round win.

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Houston vs Purdue Public Betting Splits

Friday’s March Madness public betting splits heavily favor the Cougars, with Houston receiving 66% of spread bets and 77% of the spread handle. The moneyline action is even more one-sided, with 95% of tickets and 88% of handle backing Houston to advance to the Elite Eight.

The most intriguing betting trend centers on the total, where an overwhelming 95% of bets and 92% of handle are backing the over. This stands in contrast to recent performance, as both of Purdue’s tournament games have stayed under their totals, while Houston’s last five games have gone 2-3 to the over/under.

There’s a clear physical mismatch between these squads, something notable as Purdue has yet to face a team of that caliber. The Boilermakers also had 19 turnovers against McNeese State- a red flag against Houston’s suffocating perimeter defense.

The Cougars enter Friday’s matchup as a +550 bet in the odds to win March Madness, while Purdue sits at +12500 longshot. The winner advances to face either #3 Michigan State or #6 Ole Miss in the Elite Eight on Sunday.